Charlton 1-2 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Charlton take on Preston.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off: Saturday 11 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Charlton have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 3W 2D 5L at The Valley — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Charlton 0W, Preston 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Preston winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 46% versus Preston 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Preston 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.00 xG and Preston 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.679 / defence 1.042 | Preston attack 0.844 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.187. Charlton's attack strength of 0.679 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Charlton games / 87 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 35% | Preston 34%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Preston 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | Preston 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 31% | Draw 35% | Preston 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Charlton 1.00 / Preston 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.679 / def 1.042 | Preston attack 0.844 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Preston xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Preston kick off?
Charlton vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Preston?
Charlton 1 - 2 Preston.
Where is Charlton vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Preston part of?
Charlton vs Preston is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 31% chance of winning, Preston a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Charlton and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 0 | Preston 1W.
What form are Charlton and Preston in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Preston (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Charlton's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.84x) against Charlton's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 41/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.18
35%
2.87
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.05
1.04
Preston xG
3.18
31%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Charlton and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Charlton and 1.04 for Preston, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton come into this having played 87 games, going 36W 24D 27L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.20 PPG from 87 outings (23W 35D 29L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Charlton against 1.20 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Charlton's home form reads 23W 10D 10L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 0.93 points per game from 43 outings (8W 16D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.10 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 87 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Preston in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 36W 24D 27L in their last 87 games (1.52 PPG), while Preston have gone 23W 35D 29L in their last 87 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Preston away?
Charlton's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.84 PPG; Preston away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Charlton or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Preston in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
2
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Preston?
From 3 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Preston have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Charlton 1-0 Preston.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 49%, Preston 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 49% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Preston in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Charlton's recent matches and 60% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Charlton's recent games and 49% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Preston tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Preston in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Preston edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.00 xG and Preston 1.04 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Preston outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.04 against Preston attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 41/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 31% | Draw 35% | Preston 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 44%, Preston 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Preston's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.52 PPG, Preston 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.