Cardiff 1-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Hull City at 37% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Hull City encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Hull City travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff in Championship (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cardiff have gone 2W 6D 2L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Cardiff's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Hull City stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Hull City's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.40 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

Despite the home advantage, Hull City have the better record in our head-to-head data — 7 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Cardiff.

The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.1 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Cardiff 1–4 Hull City — a Hull City win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Hull City have won 7 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.1 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Cardiff trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Hull City trading profile (last 79 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 51% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | Hull City 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cardiff surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Hull City have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.07 xG and Hull City 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.912 / defence 1.108 | Hull City attack 0.992 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.031. Data: built from Cardiff's last 79 games and Hull City's last 79.

Result probabilities: Cardiff 34% | Draw 30% | Hull City 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.97 | Draw 3.38 | Hull City 2.72. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 37% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Hull City 7 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Cardiff's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.1 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cardiff 60% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 20% (last 10 away games).

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