Burnley 1-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Tuesday 16 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Burnley's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Hull City have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Hull City have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hull City's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 46% versus Hull City 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 34% | Hull City 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.94 xG and Hull City 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.832 / defence 1.131 | Hull City attack 0.845 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 0.998. Data: 3 Burnley games / 49 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 34%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Hull City 2.94. The draw (32%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 32% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 40% | Hull City 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Burnley 0.94 / Hull City 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.832 / def 1.131 | Hull City attack 0.845 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.345 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Draw (32%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hull City xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Hull City kick off?
Burnley vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 August 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Hull City?
Burnley 1 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Burnley vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Hull City part of?
Burnley vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 34% chance of winning, Hull City a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Burnley and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Hull City in?
Burnley (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.83x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.84x) against Burnley's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
34%
2.96
32%
3.14
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.89
0.95
Hull City xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
13%
7.69
13%
7.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 14.3 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.5 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Burnley and 0.95 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 41 games, going 8W 15D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.29 PPG from 41 outings (15W 8D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hull City, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Burnley against 1.29 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 5W 7D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.15 points per game from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.98 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Hull City
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Hull City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 8W 15D 18L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Hull City have gone 15W 8D 18L in their last 41 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.10 PPG; Hull City away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Burnley or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Hull City in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Hull City?
From 4 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Hull City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2025, when Burnley 2-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Hull City?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 45% (Burnley) and 25% (Hull City) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Burnley and 25% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Hull City in 45%; Burnley have failed to score in 40% of games; Hull City in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Burnley's recent matches and 25% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Burnley's recent games and 25% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Hull City tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hull City in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Hull City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Hull City finished level at 1-1 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.94 xG and Hull City 0.95 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Hull City attack 0.84 / defence 0.84, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 34% | Draw 32% | Hull City 34%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 34%, Hull City 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 0.95 PPG, Hull City 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.