Burnley 2-0 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Burnley take on Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Turf Moor plays host to Burnley versus Hull City in Championship (matchday 32). Kick-off: Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Burnley's record over their last 10 games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.10 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 9 clean sheets from 10 games (90%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Burnley's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 6D 0L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Burnley's 2.00 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hull City's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Burnley's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) — Burnley have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Hull City in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Burnley, 0 for Hull City and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Oct 2024, ended Burnley 1–1 Hull City — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 45% versus Hull City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 42% | Hull City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 0.78 xG and Hull City 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.657 / defence 0.587 | Hull City attack 1.034 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.053. Burnley's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.78. Burnley have a tight defence (rating 0.587), which is pulling Hull City's projected output down. Data: built from Burnley's last 31 games and Hull City's last 76.
Result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 38% | Hull City 27%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.86 | Draw 2.61 | Hull City 3.74. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS Yes probability 26% | Total xG 1.42. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.42 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.64 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 83% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Burnley's last 10 home games and Hull City's last 10 away games) averaging 1.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burnley 20% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 32 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 12 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 35% | Draw 38% | Hull City 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% (Under 83%) | BTTS Yes 26% (No 74%) | xG Burnley 0.78 / Hull City 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.657 / def 0.587 | Hull City attack 1.034 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Hull City xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burnley vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Burnley vs Hull City kick off?
Burnley vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 12 February 2025 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Hull City?
Burnley 2 - 0 Hull City.
Where is Burnley vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Hull City part of?
Burnley vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 35% chance of winning, Hull City a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Burnley and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (74%).
Will Burnley vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (83%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Burnley's attack at 0.66x the league average against Hull City's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.03x) against Burnley's defence (0.59x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Burnley's last 31 games and Hull City's last 76 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.3%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
38%
2.61
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.9%
Home win
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Burnley xG
Total xG
1.42
0.64
Hull City xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
41%
Over 1.5
2.44
59%
Under 1.5
1.69
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
1%
Over 4.5
100.00
99%
Under 4.5
1.01
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.89
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.42
12%
8.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.3 | 15.5 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.9 | 12.0 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burnley vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.9%.
How many goals are Burnley and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Burnley and 0.64 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 69 games, going 21W 22D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.26 PPG from 69 outings (23W 18D 28L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Burnley against 1.26 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 9W 12D 13L across their last 34 home games, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.41 points per game from their last 34 away games (14W 6D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.29 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
Burnley (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burnley
Current Season
Hull City
Current Season
❓ Burnley vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Burnley and Hull City in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 21W 22D 26L in their last 69 games (1.23 PPG), while Hull City have gone 23W 18D 28L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Hull City away?
Hull City's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.15 PPG; Hull City away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Burnley or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hull City in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Burnley and Hull City, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 12 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burnley have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Burnley
2
Draws
0
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Burnley vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Hull City?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Burnley have won 2, Hull City have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 February 2025: Burnley 2-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Hull City?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 44%, Hull City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Burnley) and 59% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burnley vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burnley and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Burnley's recent matches and 56% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burnley and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Burnley's recent games and 59% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Burnley's recent matches and 68% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Hull City 2-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 32, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 0.78 xG and Hull City 0.64 xG, a combined 1.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.66 / defence 0.59 against Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 0.88, drawn from 31/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 35% | Draw 38% | Hull City 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Burnley win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 42% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 42%, Hull City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hull City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.23 PPG, Hull City 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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