Bournemouth 1-0 Nottingham Forest – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nottingham Forest at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest meet at Vitality Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 3 May 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Bournemouth (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Nottingham Forest's overall Championship record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Nottingham Forest arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Nottingham Forest and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 2–1 with Bournemouth winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bournemouth — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Nottingham Forest — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 48% versus Nottingham Forest 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 52% | Nottingham Forest 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 0.88 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.049 / defence 1.003 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.932 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.085 / away 1.156. Nottingham Forest's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Bournemouth games / 44 Nottingham Forest games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 29% | Draw 31% | Nottingham Forest 40%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Nottingham Forest 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nottingham Forest as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Nottingham Forest 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 3 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 29% | Draw 31% | Nottingham Forest 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Bournemouth 0.88 / Nottingham Forest 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.049 / def 1.003 | Nottingham Forest attack 0.932 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.085 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Nottingham Forest xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kick off?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 3 May 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth 1 - 0 Nottingham Forest.
Where is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest part of?
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 29% chance of winning, Nottingham Forest a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 0 | Nottingham Forest 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Nottingham Forest (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Nottingham Forest's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Nottingham Forest's attack (0.93x) against Bournemouth's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
29%
3.42
31%
3.23
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
1.96
1.08
Nottingham Forest xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
10%
10.09
16%
6.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.08 for Nottingham Forest, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 23W 13D 8L from 44 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-W in the last five.
Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have gone 23W 10D 11L across 44 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.86 PPG for Bournemouth against 1.80 for Nottingham Forest. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 11W 7D 3L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nottingham Forest's away record stands at 10W 6D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bournemouth are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Nottingham Forest are on 1.64 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Nottingham Forest in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 23W 13D 8L in their last 44 games (1.86 PPG), while Nottingham Forest have gone 23W 10D 11L in their last 44 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Nottingham Forest away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.90 PPG; Nottingham Forest away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Nottingham Forest been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Nottingham Forest in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bournemouth won 5-0 on 25 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bournemouth have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Nottingham Forest — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bournemouth
4
Draws
0
Nottingham Forest
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
From 10 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 6, Nottingham Forest have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 62%, Nottingham Forest 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bournemouth) and 33% (Nottingham Forest).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Nottingham Forest away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Nottingham Forest?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 48% of Nottingham Forest's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Bournemouth's recent games and 33% of Nottingham Forest's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Nottingham Forest in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Nottingham Forest 1-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 0.88 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.08 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.05 / defence 1.00 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.93 / defence 0.77, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 29% | Draw 31% | Nottingham Forest 40%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Bournemouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 52%, Nottingham Forest 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.86 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.