Blackpool 0-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Blackpool take on West Brom.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bloomfield Road plays host to Blackpool versus West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Tuesday 23 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Blackpool (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 games at Bloomfield Road this term (1.44 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for West Brom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Brom away from home this season: 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Blackpool against 1.60 for West Brom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Blackpool goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games).
West Brom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackpool 56% versus West Brom 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackpool 39% | West Brom 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackpool 0.89 xG and West Brom 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackpool attack 0.731 / defence 1.036 | West Brom attack 0.850 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.105. Blackpool's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Blackpool games / 18 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackpool 30% | Draw 36% | West Brom 34%. Fair-value odds: Blackpool 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | West Brom 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Blackpool 22% | West Brom 44% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackpool vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Bloomfield Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackpool 30% | Draw 36% | West Brom 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Blackpool 0.89 / West Brom 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Blackpool attack 0.731 / def 1.036 | West Brom attack 0.850 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.105 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Blackpool xG
Expected Goals
0.97
West Brom xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackpool vs West Brom kick off?
Blackpool vs West Brom kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 23 November 2021 at Bloomfield Road.
What was the final score in Blackpool vs West Brom?
Blackpool 0 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Blackpool vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Bloomfield Road.
What competition is Blackpool vs West Brom part of?
Blackpool vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackpool vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Blackpool a 30% chance of winning, West Brom a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Blackpool vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Blackpool and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Blackpool vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and West Brom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Blackpool and West Brom in?
Blackpool (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. West Brom (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Blackpool's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — West Brom's attack (0.85x) against Blackpool's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.32
36%
2.82
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Blackpool xG
Total xG
1.87
0.97
West Brom xG
3.32
30%
Home win
2.82
36%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
14%
7.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 15.0 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.4 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackpool vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Blackpool and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Blackpool and 0.97 for West Brom, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackpool vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Blackpool come into this having played 18 games, going 7W 5D 6L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, West Brom sit at 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for West Brom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Blackpool against 1.78 for West Brom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Blackpool's home form reads 4W 1D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, West Brom have taken 1.22 points per game from 9 outings (3W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.78 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
Attack vs Defence
Blackpool are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.50 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackpool
Blended
West Brom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackpool and West Brom in coming into this match?
Blackpool have gone 7W 5D 6L in their last 18 games (1.44 PPG), while West Brom have gone 9W 5D 4L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackpool at home or West Brom away?
Blackpool's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackpool at home: 1.44 PPG; West Brom away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Blackpool or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackpool have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, West Brom in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
West Brom go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackpool have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against West Brom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Blackpool
1
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackpool and West Brom?
From 4 meetings on record, Blackpool have won 0, West Brom have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Blackpool and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Blackpool 0-2 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Blackpool and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Blackpool see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Blackpool) and 44% (West Brom) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Blackpool) and 56% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Blackpool keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Blackpool have failed to score in 44% of games; West Brom in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackpool home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackpool play West Brom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Blackpool's recent matches and 44% of West Brom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackpool vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Blackpool's recent games and 56% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackpool and West Brom tend to score early?
Blackpool have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, West Brom in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Blackpool's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bloomfield Road, Regular Season - 19, as Blackpool and West Brom drew 0-0 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackpool 0.89 xG and West Brom 0.97 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Blackpool fell 0.9 short of their projected output. West Brom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackpool attack 0.73 / defence 1.04 against West Brom attack 0.85 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackpool 30% | Draw 36% | West Brom 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackpool 39%, West Brom 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackpool's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
West Brom's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackpool 1.44 PPG, West Brom 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Blackpool (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.