Blackburn 0-7 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Fulham travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 November 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 4W 2D 1L from 7 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.29 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Blackburn are significantly better at Ewood Park than their overall form suggests.
Fulham — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 1D 2L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Blackburn 1.50 PPG, Fulham 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Trading Patterns
Blackburn in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Fulham in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Blackburn 73% and Fulham 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 60% | Fulham 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.78 xG and Fulham 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 1.326 / defence 1.181 | Fulham attack 1.393 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.092 / away 1.102. Blackburn carry an above-average attack strength of 1.326 — their λ of 1.78 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fulham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Blackburn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.393 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 15 Blackburn games / 15 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 38% | Draw 23% | Fulham 39%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Fulham 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fulham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 71% | Fulham 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 38% | Draw 23% | Fulham 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG Blackburn 1.78 / Fulham 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 1.326 / def 1.181 | Fulham attack 1.393 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.092 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Fulham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Fulham xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Fulham kick off?
Blackburn vs Fulham kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 3 November 2021 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Fulham?
Blackburn 0 - 7 Fulham.
Where is Blackburn vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Fulham part of?
Blackburn vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 38% chance of winning, Fulham a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Blackburn and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Blackburn and Fulham in?
Blackburn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Fulham (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 1.33x the league average against Fulham's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.78 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.1%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
38%
2.67
23%
4.26
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Blackburn xG
Total xG
3.59
1.81
Fulham xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
16%
6.13
17%
5.91
Win to Nil
6%
16.33
7%
15.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.81 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 5D 4L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.13 PPG from 15 outings (10W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Blackburn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Blackburn's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Blackburn are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.86 points per game from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.40 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Blackburn have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Fulham in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Fulham in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 6W 5D 4L in their last 15 games (1.53 PPG), while Fulham have gone 10W 2D 3L in their last 15 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Fulham away?
Blackburn's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 2.00 PPG; Fulham away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Fulham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Fulham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Blackburn
0
Draws
2
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 0, Fulham have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2022, when Fulham 2-0 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Blackburn at 71%, Fulham at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Blackburn and 71% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Blackburn's games and 71% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Blackburn vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Blackburn's matches and 71% of Fulham's.
Do Blackburn and Fulham tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Fulham in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fulham run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Blackburn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham beat Blackburn 0-7 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.78 xG and Fulham 1.81 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Blackburn fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Fulham outscored their 1.81 projection by 5.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 1.33 / defence 1.18 against Fulham attack 1.39 / defence 1.23, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 38% | Draw 23% | Fulham 39%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 60%, Fulham 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Fulham's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.53. Form held, and they took the win. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.