Zlin 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 February 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Letná, Zlin have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Teplice — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 0.70 PPG versus Teplice's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Teplice in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Zlin, 1 for Teplice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Teplice trading profile (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 60% versus Teplice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 60% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.74 xG and Teplice 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.826 / defence 1.129 | Teplice attack 0.765 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.378. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Zlin games / 48 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 47% | Draw 30% | Teplice 23%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 4.35. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zlin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 47% | Draw 30% | Teplice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Zlin 1.74 / Teplice 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.826 / def 1.129 | Teplice attack 0.765 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Zlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Teplice xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Zlin 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 47% chance of winning, Teplice a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 1 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Teplice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.83x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.30
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.93
1.19
Teplice xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
18%
5.67
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.1 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Zlin and 1.19 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 53 games, going 11W 17D 25L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 0.98 PPG from 53 outings (14W 10D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.94 PPG, Teplice on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zlin's home form reads 8W 6D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 0.68 points per game from 25 outings (4W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.13 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 17D 25L in their last 53 games (0.94 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 10D 29L in their last 53 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Teplice away?
Zlin's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.20 PPG; Teplice away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 12 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 64%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Zlin and 72% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Zlin's games and 52% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Zlin's matches and 72% of Teplice's.
Do Zlin and Teplice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Teplice in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Teplice 2-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.74 xG and Teplice 1.19 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Teplice attack 0.77 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 47% | Draw 30% | Teplice 23%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.94 PPG, Teplice 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.