Zlin 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Stadion Letna to face Zlin in Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 May 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Zlin's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at Stadion Letna this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Slovácko away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Zlin against 0.80 for Slovácko. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 8 meetings, Slovácko have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Zlin's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2025, ended 0–2 with Slovácko winning.
It is worth noting that Slovácko have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 56% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 56% | Slovácko 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.66 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.030 / defence 1.357 | Slovácko attack 0.893 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.201. Data: 30 Zlin games / 60 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 42% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 33%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zlin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 50% | Slovácko 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Group - 5 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 42% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Zlin 1.66 / Slovácko 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.030 / def 1.357 | Slovácko attack 0.893 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Zlin (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Slovácko xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slovácko kick off?
Zlin vs Slovácko kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovácko?
Zlin 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Zlin vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovácko part of?
Zlin vs Slovácko is a Relegation Group - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 42% chance of winning, Slovácko a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zlin and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovácko?
Record (8 meetings): Zlin 2W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 5W.
What form are Zlin and Slovácko in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.03x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (0.89x) against Zlin's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 30/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
42%
2.39
25%
3.94
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.12
1.46
Slovácko xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
10%
10.26
6%
16.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Zlin and 1.46 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 10W 8D 16L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Slovácko's form line: 7W 9D 18L from 34 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Zlin against 0.88 for Slovácko. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 2W 6D 9L from 17 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 0.88 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Slovácko
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 10W 8D 16L in their last 34 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 7W 9D 18L in their last 34 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovácko away?
Zlin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.29 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Zlin
1
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 3, Slovácko have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Zlin 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 65%, Slovácko 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Zlin) and 29% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Zlin's recent matches and 41% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Zlin's recent games and 29% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Slovácko tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Slovácko 1-0 at Stadion Letna, Relegation Group - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.66 xG and Slovácko 1.46 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against Slovácko attack 0.89 / defence 1.17, drawn from 30/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 42% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 33%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 56%, Slovácko 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.12 PPG, Slovácko 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.