Zlin 0-1 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Karviná travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zlin 1.10 PPG, Karviná 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Zlin, 1 for Karviná and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2023, ended 1–4 with Karviná winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Karviná in-play tendencies (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 62% versus Karviná 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 52% | Karviná 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.85 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.092 / defence 1.151 | Karviná attack 0.872 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.254. Data: 59 Zlin games / 29 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 50% | Draw 25% | Karviná 25%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Karviná 4.00. Zlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.11 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 80% | Karviná 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 50% | Draw 25% | Karviná 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Zlin 1.85 / Karviná 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.092 / def 1.151 | Karviná attack 0.872 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Zlin (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Karviná xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Karviná kick off?
Zlin vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Zlin 0 - 1 Karviná.
Where is Zlin vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Karviná part of?
Zlin vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 50% chance of winning, Karviná a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Zlin and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
Record (4 meetings): Zlin 2W | Draws 1 | Karviná 1W.
What form are Zlin and Karviná in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.09x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
50%
2.00
25%
3.97
25%
4.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.11
1.26
Karviná xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.04
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
16%
6.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
4%
25.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Zlin and 1.26 for Karviná, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 29 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 5W 10D 14L record — D-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Karviná's form line: 5W 7D 17L from 29 games, 0.76 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.86 PPG, Karviná on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 4D 9L from 14 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Karviná in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 5W 10D 14L in their last 29 games (0.86 PPG), while Karviná have gone 5W 7D 17L in their last 29 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Karviná away?
Zlin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.29 PPG; Karviná away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Karviná runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Zlin
2
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 3, Karviná have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 79%, Karviná at 57%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Zlin) and 57% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Zlin's games and 57% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Zlin's recent games and 57% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Karviná tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Karviná in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Karviná defy the odds to beat Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.85 xG and Karviná 1.26 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.09 / defence 1.15 against Karviná attack 0.87 / defence 1.11, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 50% | Draw 25% | Karviná 25%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 52%, Karviná 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Karviná's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.86 PPG, Karviná 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.