Zlin 2-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Zlin welcome FK Jablonec to Stadion Letná. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FK Jablonec's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Zlin) versus 0.90 (FK Jablonec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FK Jablonec in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Zlin, 0 for FK Jablonec and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec in-play and half-time data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 60% versus FK Jablonec 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 58% | FK Jablonec 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.37 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.853 / defence 0.868 | FK Jablonec attack 0.944 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.526 / away 1.362. Data: 33 Zlin games / 33 FK Jablonec games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 30%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | FK Jablonec 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Zlin at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | FK Jablonec 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Zlin 1.37 / FK Jablonec 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.853 / def 0.868 | FK Jablonec attack 0.944 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.526 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: Zlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
FK Jablonec xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Zlin 2 - 2 FK Jablonec.
Where is Zlin vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs FK Jablonec part of?
Zlin vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 43% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Zlin and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
Record (2 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zlin's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, FK Jablonec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
43%
2.34
27%
3.73
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.49
1.12
FK Jablonec xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
8%
12.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Zlin and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Zlin and 1.12 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 9W 10D 19L from 38 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 6W 17D 15L across 38 games — 0.92 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 0.97 PPG, FK Jablonec on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 7W 4D 7L from 18 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.97 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 2W 8D 8L across 18 trips, a 0.78 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 0.82 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
FK Jablonec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 9W 10D 19L in their last 38 games (0.97 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 6W 17D 15L in their last 38 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or FK Jablonec away?
Zlin's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.39 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting FK Jablonec specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
7
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 7 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and FK Jablonec?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 61%, FK Jablonec 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zlin) and 44% (FK Jablonec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FK Jablonec in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Zlin's games and 50% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Zlin's matches and 44% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Zlin and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and FK Jablonec share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 4, as Zlin and FK Jablonec drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.37 xG and FK Jablonec 1.12 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FK Jablonec outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against FK Jablonec attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 43% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 30%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 58%, FK Jablonec 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 0.97 PPG, FK Jablonec 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.