Zlin 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Baník Ostrava meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 January 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Baník Ostrava arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Baník Ostrava in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zlin lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 1–3 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 59% and Baník Ostrava 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 61% | Baník Ostrava 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.24 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.798 / defence 1.271 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.937 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.291. Zlin's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.24 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 46 Zlin games / 46 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 28% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 42%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Baník Ostrava 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jan 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 28% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Zlin 1.24 / Baník Ostrava 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.798 / def 1.271 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.937 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Baník Ostrava xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 29 January 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Zlin 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 28% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Zlin and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Record (2 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 1 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.80) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (0.94x) against Zlin's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.30
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.78
1.54
Baník Ostrava xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
16.55
12%
8.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Zlin and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Zlin and 1.54 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 11W 15D 25L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 20W 15D 16L from 51 games, 1.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.28 PPG from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 7W 9D 9L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.69 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 15D 25L in their last 51 games (0.94 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Zlin's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.28 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 60%, Baník Ostrava 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Zlin and 56% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zlin's games and 64% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Zlin's matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Zlin and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin and Baník Ostrava finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.24 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.54 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.27 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.94 / defence 0.94, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 28% | Draw 30% | Baník Ostrava 42%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 61%, Baník Ostrava 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.