Teplice 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Zbrojovka Brno at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 12 March 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zbrojovka Brno have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zbrojovka Brno away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Teplice) versus 0.90 (Zbrojovka Brno). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Teplice have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Teplice 68% and Zbrojovka Brno 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Teplice 77% | Zbrojovka Brno 77%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.50 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.929 / defence 1.203 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.745 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.391. Data: 52 Teplice games / 22 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 29% | Zbrojovka Brno 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Zbrojovka Brno 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 60% | Zbrojovka Brno 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 29% | Zbrojovka Brno 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Teplice 1.50 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.929 / def 1.203 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.745 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.391 • Poisson stance: Teplice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Zbrojovka Brno xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Teplice 1 - 1 Zbrojovka Brno.
Where is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 41% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
Record (1 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 1 | Zbrojovka Brno 0W.
What form are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.93) and Zbrojovka Brno's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zbrojovka Brno's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
41%
2.41
29%
3.49
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.75
1.25
Zbrojovka Brno xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
12%
8.40
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Teplice and 1.25 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Teplice come into this having played 22 games, going 5W 5D 12L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (7W 5D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Zbrojovka Brno is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 0.91 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Teplice's home form reads 4W 4D 3L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Teplice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.27 points per game from 11 outings (4W 2D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 2.41 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.45 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Teplice have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Zbrojovka Brno in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Zbrojovka Brno
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 5W 5D 12L in their last 22 games (0.91 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 7W 5D 10L in their last 22 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Teplice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.45 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Teplice's record when hosting Zbrojovka Brno specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Teplice
3
Draws
0
Zbrojovka Brno
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno?
From 3 meetings on record, Teplice have won 0, Zbrojovka Brno have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2023, when Teplice 1-1 Zbrojovka Brno.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 64%, Zbrojovka Brno 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Teplice and 64% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 36% of games; Zbrojovka Brno in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Zbrojovka Brno?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Teplice's games and 64% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Teplice's matches and 64% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice and Zbrojovka Brno finished level at 1-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.50 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.25 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 41% | Draw 29% | Zbrojovka Brno 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 77%, Zbrojovka Brno 77%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.91 PPG, Zbrojovka Brno 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.