Sparta Praha 0-0 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sparta Praha face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slavia Praha make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Sparta Praha at home: 10W 0D 0L from their last 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Slavia Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.70 PPG for Sparta Praha against 2.50 for Slavia Praha. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Sparta Praha, 0 for Slavia Praha and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Sparta Praha 1–1 Slavia Praha — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 70%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 56% versus Slavia Praha 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Slavia Praha 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.54 xG and Slavia Praha 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.284 / defence 0.758 | Slavia Praha attack 1.226 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.281. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 1.54 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.765, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Sparta Praha's projected output down. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.226, which lifts their away xG to 1.19. Sparta Praha have a tight defence (rating 0.758), which is pulling Slavia Praha's projected output down. Data: built from Sparta Praha's last 52 games and Slavia Praha's last 52.
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 28%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.27 | Draw 3.61 | Slavia Praha 3.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sparta Praha's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sparta Praha 50% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 3 March 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Sparta Praha 1.54 / Slavia Praha 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.284 / def 0.758 | Slavia Praha attack 1.226 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 3 March 2024 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Sparta Praha 0 - 0 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 44% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.28x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.23x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Sparta Praha's last 52 games and Slavia Praha's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.61
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.73
1.19
Slavia Praha xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.46
6%
16.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.19 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Praha come into this having played 57 games, going 42W 11D 4L for 2.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.33 PPG from 57 outings (41W 10D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.40 PPG for Sparta Praha against 2.33 for Slavia Praha. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sparta Praha's home form reads 23W 4D 1L across their last 28 home games, a 2.61 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 1.89 points per game from their last 28 away games (15W 8D 5L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slavia Praha's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.53 scored and 0.84 conceded. Sparta Praha's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Slavia Praha in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
Sparta Praha (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sparta Praha
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 42W 11D 4L in their last 57 games (2.40 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 41W 10D 6L in their last 57 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Slavia Praha away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.61 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha, the earliest from May 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Slavia Praha have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won Sparta Praha 0-3 Slavia Praha on 30 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
4
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sparta Praha have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Sparta Praha 0-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 57%, Slavia Praha 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sparta Praha's games and 54% of Slavia Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sparta Praha's matches and 50% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 82% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sparta Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha finished level at 0-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.54 xG and Slavia Praha 1.19 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Slavia Praha landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.28 / defence 0.76 against Slavia Praha attack 1.23 / defence 0.77, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 44% | Draw 28% | Slavia Praha 28%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Slavia Praha 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sparta Praha 2.40 PPG, Slavia Praha 2.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.