Sparta Praha 1-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Letná plays host to Sparta Praha versus České Budějovice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 12 November 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Letná, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
České Budějovice have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, České Budějovice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Sparta Praha's 1.90 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of České Budějovice's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Sparta Praha, 0 for České Budějovice and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2022, ended 2–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
České Budějovice half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus České Budějovice 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | České Budějovice 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.04 xG and České Budějovice 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.202 / defence 0.822 | České Budějovice attack 1.004 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.732 / away 1.329. Data: 45 Sparta Praha games / 45 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 19%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | České Budějovice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 70% | České Budějovice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Sparta Praha 2.04 / České Budějovice 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.202 / def 0.822 | České Budějovice attack 1.004 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.732 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.10
České Budějovice xG
59%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Sparta Praha 1 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice part of?
Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 58% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sparta Praha and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and České Budějovice?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Praha 2W | Draws 1 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and České Budějovice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against České Budějovice's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. Flip it around — České Budějovice's attack (1.00x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.26
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.14
1.10
České Budějovice xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.16
2%
41.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.10 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sparta Praha come into this having played 47 games, going 27W 12D 8L for 1.98 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.15 PPG from 47 outings (14W 12D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sparta Praha's home form reads 15W 6D 2L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.83 points per game from 23 outings (4W 7D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.26 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 27W 12D 8L in their last 47 games (1.98 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 12D 21L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or České Budějovice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.22 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or České Budějovice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, České Budějovice in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sparta Praha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 4-0 on 22 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, České Budějovice have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and České Budějovice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 70%, České Budějovice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sparta Praha) and 56% (České Budějovice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; České Budějovice in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Sparta Praha's games and 56% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sparta Praha's matches and 56% of České Budějovice's.
Do Sparta Praha and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out České Budějovice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat České Budějovice 1-0 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.04 xG and České Budějovice 1.10 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sparta Praha fell 1.0 short of their projected output. České Budějovice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against České Budějovice attack 1.00 / defence 0.98, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 58% | Draw 23% | České Budějovice 19%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, České Budějovice 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
České Budějovice's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.15. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.