Slovan Liberec 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 42%, yet the head-to-head data favours Teplice — this Slovan Liberec vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Stadion U Nisy to face Slovan Liberec in Czech Liga (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form
Slovan Liberec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Slovan Liberec's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Teplice have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Teplice's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.50 for Teplice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, Teplice have the stronger record — 5 wins to Slovan Liberec's 1, with 2 draws.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Slovan Liberec 1–1 Teplice — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Teplice have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading
Slovan Liberec half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 42% versus Teplice 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 42% | Teplice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.04 xG and Teplice 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.909 / defence 0.764 | Teplice attack 0.812 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.099. Slovan Liberec have a tight defence (rating 0.764), which is pulling Teplice's projected output down. Data: built from Slovan Liberec's last 55 games and Teplice's last 55.
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 35% | Teplice 22%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.38 | Draw 2.82 | Teplice 4.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Teplice's lower xG of 0.68 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovan Liberec at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovan Liberec if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 75% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Slovan Liberec's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Slovan Liberec 20% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 26 | Venue: Stadion U Nisy • Kick-off: Sunday 15 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 35% | Teplice 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Slovan Liberec 1.04 / Teplice 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.909 / def 0.764 | Teplice attack 0.812 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.099 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Teplice xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 15 March 2026 at Stadion U Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion U Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Teplice part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 26) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 42% chance of winning, Teplice a 22% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.81x) against Slovan Liberec's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Slovan Liberec's last 55 games and Teplice's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.9%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
42%
2.38
35%
2.82
22%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
1.72
0.68
Teplice xG
2.38
42%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
4.44
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
8%
12.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.9 | 12.2 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.6 | 12.7 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.6%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.68 for Teplice, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 57 games, going 22W 17D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.25 PPG from 57 outings (18W 17D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Slovan Liberec against 1.25 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 13W 7D 7L across their last 27 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 27 away games (5W 12D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovan Liberec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.11 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Teplice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Slovan Liberec (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Slovan Liberec and Teplice in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 22W 17D 18L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Teplice have gone 18W 17D 22L in their last 57 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Teplice away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.70 PPG; Teplice away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Teplice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovan Liberec won Slovan Liberec 3-0 Teplice on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Slovan Liberec have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
6
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Slovan Liberec have won 1, Teplice have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Slovan Liberec 0-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 30%, Teplice 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Slovan Liberec) and 37% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 30% of games; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Slovan Liberec vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 52% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 37% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 63% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Stadion U Nisy, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.04 xG and Teplice 0.68 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.91 / defence 0.76 against Teplice attack 0.81 / defence 0.84, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 42% | Draw 35% | Teplice 22%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 52% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 42%, Teplice 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.46 PPG, Teplice 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.