Slovácko 0-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty to take on Slovácko. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Slovácko have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sigma Olomouc have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sigma Olomouc's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Slovácko) versus 1.10 (Sigma Olomouc). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Slovácko, 0 for Sigma Olomouc and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 49% versus Sigma Olomouc 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 49% | Sigma Olomouc 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.81 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 1.113 / defence 0.893 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.889 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.125. Data: 32 Slovácko games / 32 Sigma Olomouc games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Slovácko 58% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 17%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Sigma Olomouc 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Slovácko (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Sigma Olomouc 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 58% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Slovácko 1.81 / Sigma Olomouc 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 1.113 / def 0.893 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.889 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Slovácko 0 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 58% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (4 meetings): Slovácko 2W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc in?
Slovácko (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Slovácko's attack rating (1.11) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
58%
1.72
25%
4.07
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.71
0.89
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
24%
4.20
3%
35.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.89 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slovácko's recent record stands at 14W 12D 11L from 37 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 12L across 37 games — 1.38 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovácko on 1.46 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Slovácko have managed 9W 5D 4L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 6W 7D 5L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.51 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Sigma Olomouc
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 14W 12D 11L in their last 37 games (1.46 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 13W 12D 12L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Slovácko's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 1.78 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sigma Olomouc have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Slovácko's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 1W 3D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Slovácko
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 44%, Sigma Olomouc 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Slovácko) and 44% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Slovácko's recent matches and 50% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Slovácko's recent games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Slovácko 0-2 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 3, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.81 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Slovácko fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.89 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 58% | Draw 25% | Sigma Olomouc 17%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 49%, Sigma Olomouc 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovácko 1.46 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.