Slavia Praha 5-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Slavia Praha face Slovácko.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Slovácko travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 July 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slavia Praha have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Slavia Praha haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Slavia Praha's home record at Fortuna Arena: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Slavia Praha are significantly better at Fortuna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Slovácko — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Slavia Praha have dominated this rivalry, winning 8 of 9 past contests while Slovácko have managed just 0 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 3–0 with Slavia Praha winning.
The historical record gives Slavia Praha a meaningful edge here — 8 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Slovácko in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 59% versus Slovácko 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 59% | Slovácko 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 1.68 xG and Slovácko 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.112 / defence 0.890 | Slovácko attack 0.952 / defence 1.078. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Slavia Praha games / 30 Slovácko games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 22%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Slovácko 4.55. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Slavia Praha 50% | Slovácko 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Slavia Praha 1.68 / Slovácko 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.112 / def 0.890 | Slovácko attack 0.952 / def 1.078 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Slovácko xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Slovácko kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Slovácko kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Slovácko?
Slavia Praha 5 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Slovácko part of?
Slavia Praha vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 52% chance of winning, Slovácko a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Slavia Praha and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Slovácko?
Record (9 meetings): Slavia Praha 8W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Slovácko in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Slavia Praha's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.91
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
2.70
1.02
Slovácko xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
4%
24.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.02 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Slavia Praha come into this having played 34 games, going 24W 8D 2L for 2.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. Slavia Praha haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.03 PPG from 34 outings (9W 8D 17L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. Slovácko haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Slavia Praha's home form reads 14W 3D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.65 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 0.76 points per game from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.06 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Pre-Season
Slovácko
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 24W 8D 2L in their last 34 games (2.35 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 9W 8D 17L in their last 34 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Slovácko away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.65 PPG; Slovácko away: 0.76 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Slovácko in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slavia Praha have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2023, when Slavia Praha won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 6W 0D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
0
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 9, Slovácko have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Slavia Praha 5-1 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Slovácko?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 47%, Slovácko 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Slavia Praha) and 35% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Slovácko in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 35% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Slavia Praha's recent games and 35% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slavia Praha and Slovácko tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Slavia Praha run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Slovácko 5-1 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 1.68 xG and Slovácko 1.02 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Slavia Praha beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Slovácko attack 0.95 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 22%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 59%, Slovácko 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovácko's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.53 average — above their attacking norm. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.