Slavia Praha 1-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slavia Praha vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Plzen travel to Fortuna Arena to take on Slavia Praha. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023, 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slavia Praha stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fortuna Arena, Slavia Praha have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fortuna Arena.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slavia Praha 2.40 PPG, Plzen 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Slavia Praha, 0 for Plzen and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2023, ended 2–1 with Slavia Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Slavia Praha trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Plzen trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slavia Praha 49% versus Plzen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slavia Praha 60% | Plzen 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slavia Praha 2.06 xG and Plzen 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slavia Praha attack 1.237 / defence 0.756 | Plzen attack 1.366 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.152. Plzen have an above-average attack strength of 1.366 — the away xG of 1.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Slavia Praha's defence rating of 0.756 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Slavia Praha games / 42 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 21% | Plzen 22%. Fair-value odds: Slavia Praha 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Plzen 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Slavia Praha 50% | Plzen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slavia Praha vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Fortuna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 21% | Plzen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Slavia Praha 2.06 / Plzen 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Slavia Praha attack 1.237 / def 0.756 | Plzen attack 1.366 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Slavia Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Plzen xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slavia Praha vs Plzen kick off?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Fortuna Arena.
What was the final score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Slavia Praha 1 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Slavia Praha vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Arena.
What competition is Slavia Praha vs Plzen part of?
Slavia Praha vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Slavia Praha a 57% chance of winning, Plzen a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Slavia Praha and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Slavia Praha vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Record (1 meetings): Slavia Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Plzen 0W.
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in?
Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. Plzen (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slavia Praha's attack at 1.24x the league average against Plzen's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Slavia Praha's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.75
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Slavia Praha xG
Total xG
3.25
1.19
Plzen xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
13%
7.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
3%
36.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Slavia Praha and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Slavia Praha and 1.19 for Plzen, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Slavia Praha vs Plzen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Slavia Praha have picked up 2.36 PPG on a 34W 9D 4L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 25W 8D 14L from 47 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Plzen.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slavia Praha have posted 2.82 PPG from 22 outings (20W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.36 PPG overall — Slavia Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 4D 8L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slavia Praha are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.91 scored and 1.17 conceded. Plzen's attacking output running into Slavia Praha's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen in 62%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slavia Praha
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slavia Praha and Plzen in coming into this match?
Slavia Praha have gone 34W 9D 4L in their last 47 games (2.36 PPG), while Plzen have gone 25W 8D 14L in their last 47 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slavia Praha at home or Plzen away?
Slavia Praha's home record (2.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slavia Praha at home: 2.82 PPG; Plzen away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Slavia Praha or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slavia Praha have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Plzen in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slavia Praha's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 5W 1D 1L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Slavia Praha
1
Draws
2
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Slavia Praha have won 7, Plzen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Slavia Praha and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Slavia Praha and Plzen?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slavia Praha 46%, Plzen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Slavia Praha and 64% for Plzen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slavia Praha home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slavia Praha play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Slavia Praha's recent matches and 59% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slavia Praha vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Slavia Praha's matches and 64% of Plzen's.
Do Slavia Praha and Plzen tend to score early?
Slavia Praha have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Plzen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Slavia Praha 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slavia Praha 1-2 at Fortuna Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slavia Praha 2.06 xG and Plzen 1.19 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Slavia Praha fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Plzen outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.76 against Plzen attack 1.37 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slavia Praha 57% | Draw 21% | Plzen 22%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Plzen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slavia Praha 60%, Plzen 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slavia Praha's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Plzen's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.77. Form was overturned, with Plzen winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.