Plzen 3-2 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zlin make the trip to Stadion Mesta Plzne to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadion Mesta Plzne — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Zlin have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Plzen's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Plzen, who have won 6 of the last 8 meetings against Zlin — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–3 with Zlin winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Zlin — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 47% versus Zlin 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 53% | Zlin 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.63 xG and Zlin 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 0.946 / defence 1.098 | Zlin attack 0.899 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.380. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Plzen games / 33 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 24% | Zlin 32%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | Zlin 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 50% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadion Mesta Plzne • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 44% | Draw 24% | Zlin 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Plzen 1.63 / Zlin 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 0.946 / def 1.098 | Zlin attack 0.899 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Plzen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Zlin xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Zlin kick off?
Plzen vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Stadion Mesta Plzne.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Plzen 3 - 2 Zlin.
Where is Plzen vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Mesta Plzne.
What competition is Plzen vs Zlin part of?
Plzen vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 44% chance of winning, Zlin a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plzen and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
Record (8 meetings): Plzen 6W | Draws 0 | Zlin 2W.
What form are Plzen and Zlin in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Zlin's attack (0.90x) against Plzen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.15
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.99
1.36
Zlin xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
6%
15.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Plzen and 1.36 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 38 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 18W 11D 9L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin's form line: 11W 8D 19L from 38 games, 1.08 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 4W 4D 10L from 18 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.16 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Zlin in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 18W 11D 9L in their last 38 games (1.71 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 8D 19L in their last 38 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Zlin away?
Plzen's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.89 PPG; Zlin away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Plzen or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Zlin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 1-7 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Zlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Plzen
0
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Zlin have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Plzen 3-2 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Zlin?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, Zlin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plzen) and 44% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Zlin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plzen's recent matches and 50% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plzen's recent games and 44% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Zlin tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Zlin in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Zlin 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Zlin 3-2 at Stadion Mesta Plzne, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.63 xG and Zlin 1.36 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 0.95 / defence 1.10 against Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.23, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 44% | Draw 24% | Zlin 32%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 53%, Zlin 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.