Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Slovan Liberec encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slovan Liberec at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 March 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Plzen — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 7W 1D 2L at Doosan Aréna — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Doosan Aréna this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Plzen have won 2, Slovan Liberec 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 61% versus Slovan Liberec 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 66% | Slovan Liberec 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.41 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.378 / defence 0.832 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.735 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.556 / away 1.193. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.378 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 55 Plzen games / 55 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 74% | Draw 17% | Slovan Liberec 9%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Slovan Liberec 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Slovan Liberec 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Mar 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 74% | Draw 17% | Slovan Liberec 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 48% | xG Plzen 2.41 / Slovan Liberec 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.378 / def 0.832 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.735 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.556 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Plzen (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Slovan Liberec xG
48%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Plzen 1 - 3 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Plzen vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 74% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Plzen and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Record (3 meetings): Plzen 2W | Draws 0 | Slovan Liberec 1W.
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in?
Plzen (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.38) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 2.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
74%
1.35
17%
5.82
9%
11.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.14
0.73
Slovan Liberec xG
1.35
74%
Home win
5.82
17%
Draw
11.34
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
9%
11.10
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
1%
125.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Plzen and 0.73 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 35W 9D 15L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovan Liberec's form line: 20W 16D 23L from 59 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Slovan Liberec.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plzen have posted 1.93 PPG from 29 outings (17W 5D 7L).
On the road, Slovan Liberec have gone 6W 9D 14L from 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.46 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 9D 15L in their last 59 games (1.93 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 20W 16D 23L in their last 59 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Plzen's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.93 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Plzen
2
Draws
3
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 5, Slovan Liberec have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Plzen 1-3 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovan Liberec?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 59%, Slovan Liberec 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Plzen and 55% for Slovan Liberec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Slovan Liberec in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Plzen's games and 59% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Plzen's matches and 55% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Plzen and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slovan Liberec cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Plzen 1-3 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.41 xG and Slovan Liberec 0.73 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Slovan Liberec outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.38 / defence 0.83 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.73 / defence 1.12, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 74% | Draw 17% | Slovan Liberec 9%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 74%. Instead the game produced a Slovan Liberec win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 66%, Slovan Liberec 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Slovan Liberec winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.