Plzen 1-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slavia Praha at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plzen face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Slavia Praha at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga (matchday 23). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Plzen — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Plzen have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Slavia Praha have recorded 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Slavia Praha's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 2.20 PPG versus Slavia Praha's 2.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Plzen, 2 for Slavia Praha and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Plzen 0–3 Slavia Praha — a Slavia Praha win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Slavia Praha in-play and half-time data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 56% versus Slavia Praha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 58% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.34 xG and Slavia Praha 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.426 / defence 0.998 | Slavia Praha attack 1.220 / defence 0.609. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.181. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.426 — their 1.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Slavia Praha bring a tight defence (rating 0.609, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Plzen's projected output down. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.220, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from Plzen's last 52 games and Slavia Praha's last 52.
Result probabilities: Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 40%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.86 | Draw 3.94 | Slavia Praha 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slavia Praha at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Slavia Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plzen 60% (last 10 home games) | Slavia Praha 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 23 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Plzen 1.34 / Slavia Praha 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.426 / def 0.998 | Slavia Praha attack 1.220 / def 0.609 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Slavia Praha xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Slavia Praha FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Plzen 1 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slavia Praha part of?
Plzen vs Slavia Praha is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 23) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 35% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Slavia Praha will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.43x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.61x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slavia Praha's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 52 games and Slavia Praha's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
35%
2.86
25%
3.94
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.77
1.44
Slavia Praha xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
8%
12.04
10%
9.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Slavia Praha Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Plzen and 1.44 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 57 games, going 36W 11D 10L for 2.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.53 PPG from 57 outings (45W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Plzen — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 21W 4D 3L across their last 28 home games, a 2.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.29 points per game from their last 28 away games (19W 7D 2L).
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.12 scored and 0.54 conceded. Plzen's scoring rate against Slavia Praha's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
Plzen (Home) vs Slavia Praha (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Plzen vs Slavia Praha Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 36W 11D 10L in their last 57 games (2.09 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 45W 9D 3L in their last 57 (2.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slavia Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.39 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slavia Praha have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 May 2024, when Slavia Praha won Slavia Praha 3-0 Plzen.
Plzen's record when hosting Slavia Praha specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Plzen
1
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Slavia Praha H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 2, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slavia Praha last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Slavia Praha 2-1 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 54%, Slavia Praha 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Plzen) and 43% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Slavia Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Slavia Praha Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Slavia Praha matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Plzen's recent matches and 43% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Plzen and Slavia Praha matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Plzen's recent games and 43% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Slavia Praha matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Plzen's recent matches and 64% of Slavia Praha's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Slavia Praha cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Plzen 1-3 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.34 xG and Slavia Praha 1.44 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.43 / defence 1.00 against Slavia Praha attack 1.22 / defence 0.61, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 35% | Draw 25% | Slavia Praha 40%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 58%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.53 PPG against 2.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.