Plzen 1-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Baník Ostrava make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga (Championship Round - 4). The match kicks off on Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Plzen's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Plzen have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Baník Ostrava's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Baník Ostrava's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Plzen, 1 for Baník Ostrava and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Feb 2024, ended Plzen 1–0 Baník Ostrava — a Plzen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 59% versus Baník Ostrava 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 66% | Baník Ostrava 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.07 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.267 / defence 0.796 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.241 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Plzen carry an above-average attack rating of 1.267 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Baník Ostrava have an above-average attack rating of 1.241, which lifts their away xG to 1.27. Plzen have a tight defence (rating 0.796), which is pulling Baník Ostrava's projected output down. Data: built from Plzen's last 60 games and Baník Ostrava's last 60.
Result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 22%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.83 | Draw 4.35 | Baník Ostrava 4.49. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (2.07 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plzen's last 10 home games and Baník Ostrava's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Plzen 40% (last 10 home games) | Baník Ostrava 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Plzen 2.07 / Baník Ostrava 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.267 / def 0.796 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.241 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Plzen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Baník Ostrava xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Plzen vs Baník Ostrava FAQs
What time does Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 18 May 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Plzen 1 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Plzen vs Baník Ostrava is a Czech Liga fixture (Championship Round - 4) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 55% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Plzen and Baník Ostrava will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Plzen vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Plzen's attacking strength (1.27x league average) is weighed against Baník Ostrava's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.24x) against Plzen's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Plzen's last 60 games and Baník Ostrava's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
55%
1.83
23%
4.35
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.34
1.27
Baník Ostrava xG
1.83
55%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
15%
6.53
3%
35.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Plzen vs Baník Ostrava Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Plzen and 1.27 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Plzen have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 39W 12D 17L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 24W 15D 29L from 68 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Baník Ostrava.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 34 home games (21W 5D 8L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 11W 9D 14L from their last 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plzen are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.50 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
Plzen (Home) vs Baník Ostrava (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Plzen
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Plzen vs Baník Ostrava Form FAQs
What form are Plzen and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 39W 12D 17L in their last 68 games (1.90 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 24W 15D 29L in their last 68 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Plzen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.00 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Plzen or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Plzen have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen on 1 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
1
Draws
3
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Plzen vs Baník Ostrava H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Plzen have won 6, Baník Ostrava have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Plzen and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Baník Ostrava 0-4 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Baník Ostrava?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 56%, Baník Ostrava 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Plzen and 56% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Plzen vs Baník Ostrava Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Plzen and Baník Ostrava matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Plzen's games and 62% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Plzen and Baník Ostrava matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Plzen's matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Plzen and Baník Ostrava matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Plzen's recent matches and 68% of Baník Ostrava's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen and Baník Ostrava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 4, as Plzen and Baník Ostrava drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.07 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.27 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Plzen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.27 / defence 0.80 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.24 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 55% | Draw 23% | Baník Ostrava 22%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 66%, Baník Ostrava 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.