Pardubice 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pardubice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Ďolíček to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 October 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 1W 3D 2L at Stadion Ďolíček — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 3W 0D 7L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Pardubice at 0.50 PPG versus Zlin's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Pardubice register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Zlin in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 73% and Zlin 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 73% | Zlin 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.87 xG and Zlin 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.979 / defence 1.337 | Zlin attack 0.790 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.379. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Pardubice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Pardubice games / 11 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 47% | Draw 22% | Zlin 30%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Zlin 3.33. Pardubice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.87 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 67% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 47% | Draw 22% | Zlin 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Pardubice 1.87 / Zlin 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.979 / def 1.337 | Zlin attack 0.790 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Zlin xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Zlin kick off?
Pardubice vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Pardubice 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Pardubice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Zlin part of?
Pardubice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 47% chance of winning, Zlin a 30% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Pardubice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.98x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
47%
2.11
22%
4.46
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.33
1.46
Zlin xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
15%
6.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
5%
21.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.46 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Pardubice come into this having played 11 games, going 1W 3D 7L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.82 PPG from 11 outings (3W 0D 8L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pardubice on 0.55 PPG, Zlin on 0.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Pardubice's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.55 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 1.20 points per game from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.36 scored and 2.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Zlin in 64%.
Last 11 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Zlin in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 7L in their last 11 games (0.55 PPG), while Zlin have gone 3W 0D 8L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Zlin away?
Zlin's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.00 PPG; Zlin away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Zlin won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Pardubice
3
Draws
4
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 3, Zlin have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Pardubice 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 60%, Zlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Pardubice and 80% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Pardubice's games and 60% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Pardubice's matches and 80% of Zlin's.
Do Pardubice and Zlin tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Pardubice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 12, as Pardubice and Zlin drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.87 xG and Zlin 1.46 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.98 / defence 1.34 against Zlin attack 0.79 / defence 1.42, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 47% | Draw 22% | Zlin 30%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 77% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 73%, Zlin 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 0.55 PPG, Zlin 0.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.