Pardubice 0-2 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates FK Jablonec at 43% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs FK Jablonec encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadion Arnosta Kostala plays host to Pardubice versus FK Jablonec in Czech Liga (matchday 22). Kick-off: Sunday 15 February 2026 at 12:00 UK time.

Current Form

Pardubice's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Pardubice's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

FK Jablonec (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, FK Jablonec have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, FK Jablonec have the stronger record — 5 wins to Pardubice's 2, with 1 draw.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Sep 2025, ended Pardubice 2–3 FK Jablonec — a FK Jablonec win.

FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

Trading

Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 48% versus FK Jablonec 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 46% | FK Jablonec 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.11 xG and FK Jablonec 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.835 / defence 1.050 | FK Jablonec attack 1.091 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.232. Data: built from Pardubice's last 51 games and FK Jablonec's last 51.

Result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 29% | FK Jablonec 43%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.51 | Draw 3.48 | FK Jablonec 2.34. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (FK Jablonec 5 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Pardubice 70% (last 10 home games) | FK Jablonec 30% (last 10 away games).

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