Pardubice 1-2 Artis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pardubice at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Artis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Artis travel to Letni Stadion to take on Pardubice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at Letni Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Artis stand at 0W 1D 6L from 7 Czech Liga matches — 0.14 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.71 per game is modest, conceding 2.71 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.71 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Artis have posted 0W 1D 2L from 3 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Pardubice carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.16 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.30 vs 0.14. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Pardubice in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games.
Artis in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 86% and Artis 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 71% | Artis 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.25 xG and Artis 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.842 / defence 0.970 | Artis attack 0.665 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.402. Data: 35 Pardubice games / 5 Artis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 44% | Draw 29% | Artis 27%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Artis 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 60% | Artis 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Artis | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Letni Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 44% | Draw 29% | Artis 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Pardubice 1.25 / Artis 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.842 / def 0.970 | Artis attack 0.665 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Artis xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Artis kick off?
Pardubice vs Artis kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Letni Stadion.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Artis?
Pardubice 1 - 2 Artis.
Where is Pardubice vs Artis being played?
The match is being played at Letni Stadion.
What competition is Pardubice vs Artis part of?
Pardubice vs Artis is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Artis?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 44% chance of winning, Artis a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Artis?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Pardubice and Artis will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Artis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Artis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Artis in?
Pardubice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Artis (all comps): 0W-1D-6L in 7 | 0.14 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 2.71 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.84x the league average against Artis's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Artis's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.43
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.16
0.91
Artis xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Artis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Artis expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Pardubice and 0.91 for Artis, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Artis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 1W 1D 5L from 7 games, a 0.57 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Artis, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 6L across 7 games — 0.14 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Pardubice by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Artis heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — 0.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Artis's away record stands at 0W 1D 2L across 3 trips, a 0.33 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Artis are on 0.71 scored and 2.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 86% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Early Season
Artis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Artis in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Artis have gone 0W 1D 6L in their last 7 (0.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Artis away?
Pardubice's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.33 PPG; Artis away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Artis runs to 1 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pardubice
0
Draws
1
Artis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Artis?
From 1 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 0, Artis have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Artis last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Pardubice 1-2 Artis.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Artis?
Artis have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 67%, Artis 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Pardubice and 33% for Artis.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 33% of games; Artis in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Artis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Artis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Pardubice's recent matches and 33% of Artis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Artis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Pardubice's recent games and 33% of Artis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Artis tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Artis in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Artis defy the odds to beat Pardubice 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Artis beat Pardubice 1-2 at Letni Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.25 xG and Artis 0.91 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Artis outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Artis attack 0.67 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 44% | Draw 29% | Artis 27%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Artis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 71%, Artis 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Artis's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pardubice arrived the stronger side — 0.57 PPG against 0.14. Form was overturned, with Artis winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Artis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.