Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Mlada Boleslav host Zlin at Lokotrans Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 2L across 7 games at Lokotrans Aréna this term (1.86 PPG). They are averaging 2.71 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.86 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Mlada Boleslav are significantly better at Lokotrans Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 3L across 6 road games this term (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Mlada Boleslav have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 64% versus Zlin 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 64% | Zlin 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 2.22 xG and Zlin 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.360 / defence 1.474 | Zlin attack 0.709 / defence 1.246. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.287. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.246 — this is suppressing Mlada Boleslav's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Mlada Boleslav games / 14 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 57% | Draw 20% | Zlin 23%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.75 | Draw 5.00 | Zlin 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Mlada Boleslav (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.22 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mlada Boleslav at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.57 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 71% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lokotrans Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 57% | Draw 20% | Zlin 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG Mlada Boleslav 2.22 / Zlin 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.360 / def 1.474 | Zlin attack 0.709 / def 1.246 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Zlin xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at Lokotrans Aréna.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Aréna.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 57% chance of winning, Zlin a 23% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.36) and Zlin's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
57%
1.74
20%
4.98
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 0
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
3.57
1.34
Zlin xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
11%
9.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
2%
40.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.34 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Mlada Boleslav have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 5W 2D 7L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 4W 2D 8L from 14 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.21 PPG, Zlin on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mlada Boleslav have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Mlada Boleslav are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 1D 3L from 6 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mlada Boleslav come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Zlin in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Zlin in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 5W 2D 7L in their last 14 games (1.21 PPG), while Zlin have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Zlin away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.67 PPG; Zlin away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Zlin in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Zlin have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Zlin?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Zlin see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Mlada Boleslav at 83%, Zlin at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Mlada Boleslav and 67% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 83% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin in 33%; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 50% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Mlada Boleslav's matches and 67% of Zlin's.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Zlin tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Zlin in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Zlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 1-0 at Lokotrans Aréna, Regular Season - 15, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 2.22 xG and Zlin 1.34 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.36 / defence 1.47 against Zlin attack 0.71 / defence 1.25, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 57% | Draw 20% | Zlin 23%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 64%, Zlin 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Zlin's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.21 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.