Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mlada Boleslav at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Mestsky stadion UMT to face Mlada Boleslav in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's home record at Mestsky stadion UMT: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Mestsky stadion UMT.
Teplice have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mlada Boleslav lead 4W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Teplice — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 56% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Teplice 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.69 xG and Teplice 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.281 / defence 0.734 | Teplice attack 1.162 / defence 0.961. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.235. Mlada Boleslav carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 0.734 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Mlada Boleslav games / 40 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 26% | Teplice 23%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Teplice 4.35. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 40% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mestsky stadion UMT • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 26% | Teplice 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.69 / Teplice 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.281 / def 0.734 | Teplice attack 1.162 / def 0.961 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Teplice xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Mestsky stadion UMT.
What was the final score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav 1 - 0 Teplice.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Mestsky stadion UMT.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 52% chance of winning, Teplice a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Record (9 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 4W | Draws 2 | Teplice 3W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mlada Boleslav's attack rating (1.28) and Teplice's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (1.16x) against Mlada Boleslav's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.92
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.74
1.05
Teplice xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 1.05 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mlada Boleslav come into this having played 45 games, going 14W 15D 16L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.31 PPG from 45 outings (15W 14D 16L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Mlada Boleslav against 1.31 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mlada Boleslav's home form reads 8W 6D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (7W 8D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Teplice in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 15D 16L in their last 45 games (1.27 PPG), while Teplice have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Teplice away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.43 PPG; Teplice away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Teplice in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mlada Boleslav have gone 3W 1D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
2
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Teplice have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Teplice?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 57%, Teplice 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Mlada Boleslav) and 48% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 57% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 48% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Teplice tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Teplice in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mlada Boleslav edge out Teplice 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 1-0 at Mestsky stadion UMT, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mlada Boleslav 1.69 xG and Teplice 1.05 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mlada Boleslav attack 1.28 / defence 0.73 against Teplice attack 1.16 / defence 0.96, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 26% | Teplice 23%, with Mlada Boleslav to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mlada Boleslav 60%, Teplice 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Teplice's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mlada Boleslav 1.27 PPG, Teplice 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.