Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mlada Boleslav at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Mlada Boleslav welcome Hradec Králové to Lokotrans Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mlada Boleslav stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lokotrans Arena, Mlada Boleslav have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Hradec Králové have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mlada Boleslav 1.60 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Mlada Boleslav have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 10 past contests while Hradec Králové have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Mlada Boleslav a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mlada Boleslav trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hradec Králové trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mlada Boleslav 62% versus Hradec Králové 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mlada Boleslav 60% | Hradec Králové 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mlada Boleslav 1.39 xG and Hradec Králové 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.103 / defence 0.839 | Hradec Králové attack 0.656 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 35 Mlada Boleslav games / 35 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 20%. Fair-value odds: Mlada Boleslav 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Hradec Králové 5.00. Mlada Boleslav hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mlada Boleslav are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mlada Boleslav offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.14 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Mlada Boleslav 50% | Hradec Králové 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lokotrans Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mlada Boleslav 52% | Draw 28% | Hradec Králové 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 40% | xG Mlada Boleslav 1.39 / Hradec Králové 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Mlada Boleslav attack 1.103 / def 0.839 | Hradec Králové attack 0.656 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Mlada Boleslav (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Mlada Boleslav xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Hradec Králové xG
40%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Lokotrans Arena.
Where is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Lokotrans Arena.
What competition is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové part of?
Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Mlada Boleslav a 52% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mlada Boleslav the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Record (10 meetings): Mlada Boleslav 5W | Draws 3 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in?
Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mlada Boleslav's attack at 1.10x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Mlada Boleslav's defence, projects 0.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mlada Boleslav Win
52%
1.91
28%
3.62
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Mlada Boleslav xG
Total xG
2.14
0.75
Hradec Králové xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
25%
4.02
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
5%
19.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 12.3 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Mlada Boleslav and 0.75 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mlada Boleslav's recent record stands at 12W 15D 13L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové, meanwhile, have gone 18W 9D 13L across 40 games — 1.58 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mlada Boleslav on 1.27 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Mlada Boleslav have managed 6W 7D 7L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hradec Králové's away record stands at 6W 4D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.58 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Mlada Boleslav are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.35 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 15D 13L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mlada Boleslav at home or Hradec Králové away?
Mlada Boleslav's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mlada Boleslav at home: 1.25 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Mlada Boleslav or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mlada Boleslav have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Sep 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mlada Boleslav's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Mlada Boleslav
3
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Hradec Králové 1-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mlada Boleslav 65%, Hradec Králové 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Mlada Boleslav) and 40% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mlada Boleslav home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mlada Boleslav play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Mlada Boleslav's games and 50% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mlada Boleslav vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Mlada Boleslav's recent games and 40% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mlada Boleslav and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Mlada Boleslav have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.