Karviná 2-3 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Karviná vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Karviná welcome Zlin to Městský Stadión. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Karviná have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 outings — a 0.67 PPG return. Last five: D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin — All Games: 1W 0D 2L from 3 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.67 PPG (Karviná) versus 1.00 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Karviná trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Zlin trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 67% versus Zlin 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 33% | Zlin 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.75 xG and Zlin 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.900 / defence 1.104 | Zlin attack 0.804 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.420. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.551 — this is suppressing Karviná's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Karviná games / 3 Zlin games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Karviná 49% | Draw 23% | Zlin 28%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Zlin 3.57. Karviná hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Karviná as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Karviná offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 67% | Zlin 33%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 49% | Draw 23% | Zlin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Karviná 1.75 / Zlin 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.900 / def 1.104 | Zlin attack 0.804 / def 1.551 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Karviná (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Zlin xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Zlin kick off?
Karviná vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Karviná 2 - 3 Zlin.
Where is Karviná vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Zlin part of?
Karviná vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 49% chance of winning, Zlin a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Karviná and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Zlin in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-2D-1L in 3 | 0.67 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-L. Zlin (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.90x the league average against Zlin's defence at 1.55x — combine the two and it projects 1.75 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Karviná's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
49%
2.04
23%
4.26
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Karviná xG
Total xG
3.01
1.26
Zlin xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
5%
20.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Karviná and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Karviná and 1.26 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Karviná's recent record stands at 0W 2D 1L from 3 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with D-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Karviná on 0.67 PPG, Zlin on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Karviná are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.33 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Zlin in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 2D 1L in their last 3 games (0.67 PPG), while Zlin have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Karviná or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Zlin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jul 2023, when Karviná won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Karviná's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Karviná
2
Draws
3
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 3, Zlin have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Zlin 1-3 Karviná.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 67%, Zlin 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Karviná) and 67% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 33%; Karviná have failed to score in 33% of games; Zlin in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Karviná's recent matches and 33% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Karviná's recent games and 67% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Zlin tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zlin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Karviná 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Karviná 2-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.75 xG and Zlin 1.26 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Zlin outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.90 / defence 1.10 against Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.55, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 49% | Draw 23% | Zlin 28%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 33%, Zlin 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Zlin's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 0.67 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Karviná scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zlin scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.