Karviná 1-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Karviná face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to Městský Stadión to face Karviná in Czech Liga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Karviná have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Karviná, 1.50 for Teplice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Karviná, 2 for Teplice and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Karviná 3–1 Teplice — a Karviná win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 53% versus Teplice 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Karviná 57% | Teplice 47%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Karviná surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Teplice have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 1.30 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.884 / defence 0.899 | Teplice attack 0.864 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.532 / away 1.218. Data: built from Karviná's last 49 games and Teplice's last 49.
Result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 2.30 | Draw 3.28 | Teplice 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Karviná at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Karviná's last 10 home games and Teplice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Karviná 50% (last 10 home games) | Teplice 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 20 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Karviná 1.30 / Teplice 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.884 / def 0.899 | Teplice attack 0.864 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.532 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: Karviná (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Teplice xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Karviná vs Teplice FAQs
What time does Karviná vs Teplice kick off?
Karviná vs Teplice kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Karviná 1 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Karviná vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Teplice part of?
Karviná vs Teplice is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 20) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 44% chance of winning, Teplice a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Karviná and Teplice will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Karviná vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.88x the league average against Teplice's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.86x) against Karviná's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Karviná's last 49 games and Teplice's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
44%
2.30
31%
3.28
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.25
0.95
Teplice xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.28
31%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.0 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.0 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Karviná vs Teplice Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Karviná and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Karviná and 0.95 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 53 outings, Karviná have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 15W 13D 25L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Teplice's form line: 17W 12D 24L from 53 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Karviná against 1.19 for Teplice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Karviná have posted 1.31 PPG from their last 26 home games (9W 7D 10L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 4D 15L from their last 26 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.09 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Blended
Teplice
Blended
Karviná (Home) vs Teplice (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Karviná
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Karviná vs Teplice Form FAQs
What form are Karviná and Teplice in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 15W 13D 25L in their last 53 games (1.09 PPG), while Teplice have gone 17W 12D 24L in their last 53 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Karviná at home or Teplice away?
Karviná's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Karviná at home: 1.31 PPG; Teplice away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Karviná and Teplice, the earliest from September 2021. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won Karviná 4-1 Teplice on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Karviná
4
Draws
3
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Karviná vs Teplice H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Teplice?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Karviná have won 2, Teplice have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Teplice last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 46%, Teplice 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Karviná) and 58% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Karviná keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Karviná have failed to score in 35% of games; Teplice in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Karviná vs Teplice Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Karviná and Teplice matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Karviná's recent matches and 54% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Karviná and Teplice matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Karviná's recent games and 58% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Teplice matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Karviná's recent matches and 50% of Teplice's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Teplice share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Teplice finished level at 1-1 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 1.30 xG and Teplice 0.95 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Teplice attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 44% | Draw 31% | Teplice 26%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 57%, Teplice 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Teplice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Karviná 1.09 PPG, Teplice 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.