Karviná 3-3 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slavia Praha at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Karviná vs Slavia Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Městský Stadión plays host to Karviná versus Slavia Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Karviná have collected 0.40 PPG across 5 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 2D 3L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Karviná have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slavia Praha (all games): 4W 0D 0L across 4 Czech Liga outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Slavia Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 3W 0D 0L from 3 away outings — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Slavia Praha are 2.60 PPG clear of Karviná in recent Czech Liga fixtures (3.00 vs 0.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Karviná — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Slavia Praha — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Karviná 50% versus Slavia Praha 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Karviná 25% | Slavia Praha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Karviná 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Karviná attack 0.896 / defence 1.402 | Slavia Praha attack 1.087 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.128. Data: 5 Karviná games / 4 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Karviná 21% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 55%. Fair-value odds: Karviná 4.76 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Karviná 60% | Slavia Praha 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Karviná vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Městský Stadión • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Karviná 21% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Karviná 0.98 / Slavia Praha 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Karviná attack 0.896 / def 1.402 | Slavia Praha attack 1.087 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Karviná xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Karviná vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Městský Stadión.
What was the final score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Karviná 3 - 3 Slavia Praha.
Where is Karviná vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Městský Stadión.
What competition is Karviná vs Slavia Praha part of?
Karviná vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Karviná a 21% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 55% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Karviná and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Karviná vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Karviná and Slavia Praha in?
Karviná (all comps): 0W-2D-3L in 5 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Slavia Praha (all comps): 4W-0D-0L in 4 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.25 | L5 W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Karviná's attack at 0.90x the league average against Slavia Praha's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.09x) against Karviná's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 5/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
21%
4.66
24%
4.20
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Karviná xG
Total xG
2.70
1.72
Slavia Praha xG
4.66
21%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
26.00
21%
4.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Karviná and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Karviná and 1.72 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Karviná vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Karviná have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Karviná, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slavia Praha's form line: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Slavia Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Slavia Praha are the form team by 2.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
Attack vs Defence
Karviná are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.50 scored and 0.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slavia Praha in 25%.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Karviná
Early Season
Slavia Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Karviná and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Karviná have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 4W 0D 0L in their last 4 (3.00 PPG).
Have Karviná or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Karviná have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Slavia Praha go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 5-1 on 3 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Karviná have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Karviná
1
Draws
6
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
From 8 meetings on record, Karviná have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Karviná and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Karviná 1-3 Slavia Praha.
Who has won more matches between Karviná and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Karviná 50%, Slavia Praha 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Karviná) and 50% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 75%; Karviná have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Karviná home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Karviná play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Karviná's recent matches and 25% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Karviná vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Karviná's recent games and 50% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Karviná and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Karviná have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná and Slavia Praha finished level at 3-3 at Městský Stadión, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Karviná 0.98 xG and Slavia Praha 1.72 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Karviná beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slavia Praha outscored their 1.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karviná attack 0.90 / defence 1.40 against Slavia Praha attack 1.09 / defence 0.83, drawn from 5/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Karviná 21% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 55%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karviná 25%, Slavia Praha 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Karviná's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Karviná scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Slavia Praha shipped 3 against a 0.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.