Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Hradec Králové welcome Sparta Praha to FINEP Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at FINEP Arena, Hradec Králové have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sparta Praha have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Hradec Králové's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Sparta Praha have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 8 of the last 9 encounters against Hradec Králové's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Hradec Králové in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 48% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.59 xG and Sparta Praha 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / defence 0.902 | Sparta Praha attack 1.052 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Data: 35 Hradec Králové games / 36 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 45% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 29%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Sparta Praha 3.45. Hradec Králové hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sparta Praha (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Hradec Králové 40% | Sparta Praha 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 45% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hradec Králové 1.59 / Sparta Praha 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.110 / def 0.902 | Sparta Praha attack 1.052 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Sparta Praha xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at FINEP Arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Hradec Králové 2 - 1 Sparta Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 45% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Hradec Králové 1W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 8W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Sparta Praha's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.88
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.82
1.22
Sparta Praha xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.22 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hradec Králové come into this having played 40 games, going 18W 9D 13L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sparta Praha sit at 2.05 PPG from 40 outings (25W 7D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hradec Králové's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sparta Praha have taken 1.74 points per game from 19 outings (10W 3D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.95 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 9D 13L in their last 40 games (1.58 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 25W 7D 8L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Sparta Praha away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.11 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Hradec Králové
0
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 2, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Hradec Králové 2-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 47%, Sparta Praha 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hradec Králové) and 53% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 37% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 53% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Sparta Praha 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Sparta Praha 2-1 at FINEP Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.59 xG and Sparta Praha 1.22 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.11 / defence 0.90 against Sparta Praha attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 35/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 45% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 29%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 48%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.58. Form was overturned, with Hradec Králové winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.