Hradec Králové 3-0 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hradec Králové face Dukla Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dukla Praha make the trip to Malsovicka arena to face Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 February 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hradec Králové have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Malsovicka arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Malsovicka arena.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dukla Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Dukla Praha have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Hradec Králové's favour (1.50 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hradec Králové lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Dukla Praha half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 43% versus Dukla Praha 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 43% | Dukla Praha 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.61 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.066 / defence 0.848 | Dukla Praha attack 0.762 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.202. Data: 50 Hradec Králové games / 50 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 57% | Draw 26% | Dukla Praha 17%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 1.75 | Draw 3.85 | Dukla Praha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Hradec Králové (57%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hradec Králové as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hradec Králové 50% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Malsovicka arena • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 57% | Draw 26% | Dukla Praha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Hradec Králové 1.61 / Dukla Praha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.066 / def 0.848 | Dukla Praha attack 0.762 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Malsovicka arena.
What was the final score in Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Hradec Králové 3 - 0 Dukla Praha.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Malsovicka arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha part of?
Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 57% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Hradec Králové 2W | Draws 1 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Dukla Praha (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Hradec Králové's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Dukla Praha's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.76x) against Hradec Králové's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
57%
1.77
26%
3.84
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.38
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
1.77
57%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
3%
28.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 0.78 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Hradec Králové have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 21W 13D 20L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dukla Praha's form line: 9W 20D 25L from 54 games, 0.87 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Dukla Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hradec Králové are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dukla Praha.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hradec Králové have posted 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (12W 8D 6L).
On the road, Dukla Praha have gone 3W 10D 13L from 26 away games — 0.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.87 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Blended
Dukla Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 21W 13D 20L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 9W 20D 25L in their last 54 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Dukla Praha away?
Hradec Králové's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 1.69 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hradec Králové won 3-0 on 8 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Hradec Králové
1
Draws
0
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Hradec Králové 3-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Dukla Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 42%, Dukla Praha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Hradec Králové) and 42% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 42% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hradec Králové run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Dukla Praha 3-0 at Malsovicka arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hradec Králové 1.61 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hradec Králové beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hradec Králové attack 1.07 / defence 0.85 against Dukla Praha attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hradec Králové 57% | Draw 26% | Dukla Praha 17%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 57%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hradec Králové 43%, Dukla Praha 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hradec Králové's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hradec Králové arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.