Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hradec Králové host Bohemians 1905 at FINEP Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové at FINEP Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at FINEP Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Hradec Králové are significantly better at FINEP Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hradec Králové 1.70 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Hradec Králové trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hradec Králové 50% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hradec Králové 47% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hradec Králové 1.54 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hradec Králové attack 1.093 / defence 0.871 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.035 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 34 Hradec Králové games / 34 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 31%. Fair-value odds: Hradec Králové 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Bohemians 1905 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Hradec Králové 40% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: FINEP Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hradec Králové 44% | Draw 25% | Bohemians 1905 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Hradec Králové 1.54 / Bohemians 1905 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Hradec Králové attack 1.093 / def 0.871 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.035 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hradec Králové xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at FINEP Arena.
Where is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at FINEP Arena.
What competition is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Hradec Králové a 44% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Hradec Králové 4W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in?
Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hradec Králové's attack at 1.09x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Hradec Králové's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
44%
2.27
25%
3.99
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hradec Králové xG
Total xG
2.79
1.25
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.89
7%
15.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.8 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hradec Králové and 1.25 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hradec Králové's recent record stands at 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bohemians 1905, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 16L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hradec Králové by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bohemians 1905 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hradec Králové have managed 12W 4D 2L from 18 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.72 PPG overall — Hradec Králové are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Bohemians 1905's away record stands at 7W 4D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hradec Králové come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hradec Králové are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.94 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hradec Králové
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Hradec Králové have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 games (1.72 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hradec Králové at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Hradec Králové's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hradec Králové at home: 2.22 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Hradec Králové or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hradec Králové have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2024, when Hradec Králové won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hradec Králové's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hradec Králové
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Hradec Králové have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1905 0-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hradec Králové 44%, Bohemians 1905 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hradec Králové) and 44% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hradec Králové home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hradec Králové play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Hradec Králové's recent matches and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hradec Králové vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hradec Králové's recent games and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hradec Králové and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Hradec Králové have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.