FK Jablonec 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Zlin travel to Stadion Střelnice to take on FK Jablonec. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 April 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FK Jablonec stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FK Jablonec are significantly better at Stadion Střelnice than their overall form suggests.
Zlin — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Zlin away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FK Jablonec 0.90 PPG, Zlin 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FK Jablonec, 0 for Zlin and 6 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
FK Jablonec trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Zlin trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FK Jablonec 62% and Zlin 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 54% | Zlin 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 2.20 xG and Zlin 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.106 / defence 1.203 | Zlin attack 0.971 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.243. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing FK Jablonec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 FK Jablonec games / 58 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 21% | Zlin 25%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | Zlin 4.00. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.45) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FK Jablonec as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.66 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 70% | Zlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 21% | Zlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 68% | xG FK Jablonec 2.20 / Zlin 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.106 / def 1.203 | Zlin attack 0.971 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Zlin xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Zlin kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
FK Jablonec 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Zlin part of?
FK Jablonec vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 54% chance of winning, Zlin a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FK Jablonec and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
Record (6 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 6 | Zlin 0W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.20. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 3-1 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
54%
1.84
21%
4.83
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
3.66
1.45
Zlin xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.83
21%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
11%
9.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
3%
36.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.7 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.45 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 20D 27L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 0.97 PPG from 63 outings (13W 22D 28L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FK Jablonec on 1.08 PPG, Zlin on 0.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 10W 12D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.58 points per game from 31 outings (2W 12D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FK Jablonec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.25 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Zlin in 65%.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Zlin
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Zlin in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 27L in their last 63 games (1.08 PPG), while Zlin have gone 13W 22D 28L in their last 63 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Zlin away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.35 PPG; Zlin away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Zlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when FK Jablonec won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
7
Draws
1
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Zlin have won 1, and 7 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Zlin 0-3 FK Jablonec.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Zlin?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 68%, Zlin 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FK Jablonec) and 58% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Zlin in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FK Jablonec's games and 55% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 58% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Zlin tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Zlin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FK Jablonec's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Zlin finished level at 0-0 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 2.20 xG and Zlin 1.45 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FK Jablonec fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.11 / defence 1.20 against Zlin attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 54% | Draw 21% | Zlin 25%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 50% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 54%, Zlin 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.08 PPG, Zlin 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.