FK Jablonec 1-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 5 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Střelnice, FK Jablonec have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FK Jablonec at 1.60 PPG versus Slovácko's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FK Jablonec have won 1, Slovácko 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with FK Jablonec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 52% versus Slovácko 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Slovácko 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Slovácko 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 1.045 / defence 0.979 | Slovácko attack 0.776 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.613 / away 1.213. Data: 54 FK Jablonec games / 54 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 22%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Slovácko 4.55. FK Jablonec hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: FK Jablonec 60% | Slovácko 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 5 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG FK Jablonec 1.49 / Slovácko 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 1.045 / def 0.979 | Slovácko attack 0.776 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.613 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Slovácko xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 5 April 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 49% chance of winning, Slovácko a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
Record (2 meetings): FK Jablonec 1W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (1.04) and Slovácko's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
49%
2.03
29%
3.48
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.42
0.92
Slovácko xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
20.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 0.92 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 59 games, going 15W 21D 23L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.80 PPG from 59 outings (32W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FK Jablonec's home form reads 9W 12D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.33 points per game from 30 outings (11W 7D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.49 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Slovácko in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 15W 21D 23L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 32W 10D 17L in their last 59 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.30 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.33 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Slovácko in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Slovácko have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 53%, Slovácko 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (FK Jablonec) and 67% (Slovácko).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FK Jablonec's games and 60% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 67% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovácko tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 23, as FK Jablonec and Slovácko drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.49 xG and Slovácko 0.92 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Slovácko attack 0.78 / defence 0.89, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 49% | Draw 29% | Slovácko 22%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Slovácko 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.