FK Jablonec 1-1 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 41%, yet in-form Slovácko provide a compelling counter-argument — this FK Jablonec vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FK Jablonec host Slovácko at Stadion Střelnice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FK Jablonec — All Games: 1W 1D 2L from 4 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. FK Jablonec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 3W 0D 1L from 4 outings — 2.25 PPG. Last five: W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Slovácko — 1.25 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.25 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). FK Jablonec's 25% and Slovácko's 25% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
In-Play Profile
FK Jablonec in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Slovácko in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (FK Jablonec 25% | Slovácko 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (FK Jablonec 50% | Slovácko 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.33 xG and Slovácko 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.958 / defence 1.097 | Slovácko attack 0.757 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.364. Data: 4 FK Jablonec games / 4 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 32%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Slovácko 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FK Jablonec are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Slovácko (2.25 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: FK Jablonec 25% | Slovácko 25% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG FK Jablonec 1.33 / Slovácko 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.958 / def 1.097 | Slovácko attack 0.757 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Slovácko xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
FK Jablonec 1 - 1 Slovácko.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko part of?
FK Jablonec vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 41% chance of winning, Slovácko a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FK Jablonec and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 1W-1D-2L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L. Slovácko (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FK Jablonec's attack rating (0.96) and Slovácko's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus FK Jablonec's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
41%
2.43
27%
3.69
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.46
1.13
Slovácko xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
8%
11.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.13 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FK Jablonec come into this having played 4 games, going 1W 1D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for FK Jablonec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 2.25 PPG from 4 outings (3W 0D 1L), a run that reads W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
FK Jablonec are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.00 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Slovácko in 25%.
Defensively: Slovácko in 75% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Slovácko in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 (2.25 PPG).
Have FK Jablonec or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Slovácko in 75%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FK Jablonec and Slovácko runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
FK Jablonec's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
FK Jablonec
3
Draws
1
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 6, Slovácko have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when FK Jablonec 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Slovácko?
FK Jablonec have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Slovácko see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — FK Jablonec 25% BTTS, Slovácko 25%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FK Jablonec) and 25% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Slovácko in 75%; FK Jablonec have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 25% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 25% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Slovácko tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Slovácko share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Slovácko finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.33 xG and Slovácko 1.13 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.96 / defence 1.10 against Slovácko attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 41% | Draw 27% | Slovácko 32%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 50%, Slovácko 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Slovácko's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.