FK Jablonec 2-2 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Střelnice plays host to FK Jablonec versus Sigma Olomouc in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FK Jablonec at Stadion Střelnice this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FK Jablonec have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sigma Olomouc in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FK Jablonec, 1 for Sigma Olomouc and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–3 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FK Jablonec half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FK Jablonec 56% versus Sigma Olomouc 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FK Jablonec 48% | Sigma Olomouc 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FK Jablonec attack 0.950 / defence 0.967 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.920 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.215. Data: 58 FK Jablonec games / 58 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 29%. Fair-value odds: FK Jablonec 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Sigma Olomouc 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FK Jablonec at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FK Jablonec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: FK Jablonec 60% | Sigma Olomouc 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion Střelnice • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG FK Jablonec 1.34 / Sigma Olomouc 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: FK Jablonec attack 0.950 / def 0.967 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.920 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: FK Jablonec (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sigma Olomouc xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Stadion Střelnice.
What was the final score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
FK Jablonec 2 - 2 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Střelnice.
What competition is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives FK Jablonec a 42% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FK Jablonec the favourite.
Will both teams score in FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (1 meetings): FK Jablonec 0W | Draws 0 | Sigma Olomouc 1W.
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in?
FK Jablonec (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FK Jablonec's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Sigma Olomouc's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.92x) against FK Jablonec's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.51
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
FK Jablonec xG
Total xG
2.43
1.08
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
8%
13.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for FK Jablonec and 1.08 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FK Jablonec's recent record stands at 14W 23D 25L from 62 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 20L across 62 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for FK Jablonec against 1.35 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FK Jablonec have managed 8W 14D 9L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 9W 9D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.16 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FK Jablonec are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.40 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FK Jablonec
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
FK Jablonec have gone 14W 23D 25L in their last 62 games (1.05 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 21D 20L in their last 62 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FK Jablonec at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
FK Jablonec's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FK Jablonec at home: 1.23 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.16 PPG.
Have FK Jablonec or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
FK Jablonec have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FK Jablonec have gone 2W 3D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FK Jablonec
4
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, FK Jablonec have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FK Jablonec 58%, Sigma Olomouc 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (FK Jablonec) and 45% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FK Jablonec home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FK Jablonec play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of FK Jablonec's recent matches and 42% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FK Jablonec vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of FK Jablonec's recent games and 45% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
FK Jablonec have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FK Jablonec and Sigma Olomouc finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Střelnice, Regular Season - 29, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FK Jablonec 1.34 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.08 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FK Jablonec attack 0.95 / defence 0.97 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.92 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FK Jablonec 42% | Draw 28% | Sigma Olomouc 29%, with FK Jablonec to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FK Jablonec 48%, Sigma Olomouc 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FK Jablonec's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FK Jablonec 1.05 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.