Dukla Praha 1-1 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 55% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dukla Praha face Sparta Praha.

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Analysis & Preview

Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Juliska to take on Dukla Praha in Czech Liga (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 November 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Dukla Praha — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Dukla Praha's home record over their last 7 home games: 3W 0D 4L (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Sparta Praha have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Sparta Praha have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dukla Praha at 0.80 PPG versus Sparta Praha's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Dukla Praha, 1 for Sparta Praha and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2024, ended Dukla Praha 0–2 Sparta Praha — a Sparta Praha win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Dukla Praha in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (last 15 games, 7 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dukla Praha 40% versus Sparta Praha 73%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dukla Praha 53% | Sparta Praha 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Dukla Praha 0.99 xG and Sparta Praha 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dukla Praha attack 0.797 / defence 1.232 | Sparta Praha attack 1.247 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.196. Dukla Praha's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack rating of 1.247, which lifts their away xG to 1.84. Dukla Praha's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sparta Praha's projected output up. Data: built from Dukla Praha's last 15 games and Sparta Praha's last 45.

Result probabilities: Dukla Praha 18% | Draw 26% | Sparta Praha 55%. Fair-value odds: Dukla Praha 5.42 | Draw 3.83 | Sparta Praha 1.80. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (55%) — a 29pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Dukla Praha's last 7 home games and Sparta Praha's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dukla Praha 43% (last 7 home games) | Sparta Praha 60% (last 10 away games).

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