Bohemians 1905 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 at 42% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians 1905 vs Karviná encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bohemians 1905 and Karviná meet at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga (Relegation Round - 3). This fixture gets under way on Thursday 16 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bohemians 1905's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Bohemians 1905's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Karviná (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Karviná's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H History

The head-to-head record in our data favours Bohemians 1905, who have won 3 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Karviná — Karviná have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended Bohemians 1905 1–1 Karviná — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Bohemians 1905 an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading Data

Bohemians 1905 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Karviná goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 32 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 1905 53% versus Karviná 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 1905 41% | Karviná 59%). Note also that Karviná surrender HT leads in 57% of cases while Bohemians 1905 recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG and Karviná 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians 1905 attack 0.829 / defence 0.895 | Karviná attack 0.837 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Data: built from Bohemians 1905's last 60 games and Karviná's last 30.

Result probabilities: Bohemians 1905 42% | Draw 31% | Karviná 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1905 2.40 | Draw 3.21 | Karviná 3.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bohemians 1905 as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bohemians 1905 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians 1905's last 10 home games and Karviná's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bohemians 1905 30% (last 10 home games) | Karviná 50% (last 10 away games).

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