Baník Ostrava 3-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baník Ostrava at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Pardubice travel to Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna to take on Baník Ostrava. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Baník Ostrava stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Baník Ostrava have posted 3W 3D 4L at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Baník Ostrava) versus 1.00 (Pardubice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Pardubice and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Pardubice in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 69% and Pardubice 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 64% | Pardubice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.95 xG and Pardubice 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 0.909 / defence 1.202 | Pardubice attack 0.842 / defence 1.495. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.403. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.495 — this is suppressing Baník Ostrava's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Baník Ostrava games / 37 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 3.85. Baník Ostrava hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Baník Ostrava at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Baník Ostrava 70% | Pardubice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 67% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.95 / Pardubice 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 0.909 / def 1.202 | Pardubice attack 0.842 / def 1.495 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Pardubice xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava 3 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 48% chance of winning, Pardubice a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | Pardubice 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Baník Ostrava's attack at 0.91x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
48%
2.07
25%
3.97
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 2
6.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
3.37
1.42
Pardubice xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
14%
7.03
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
4%
26.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 1.42 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Baník Ostrava come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 13D 13L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.95 PPG from 42 outings (10W 10D 22L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Baník Ostrava's home form reads 9W 6D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.90 points per game from 21 outings (6W 1D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.10 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 16W 13D 13L in their last 42 games (1.45 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 10W 10D 22L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Pardubice away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.57 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Baník Ostrava
2
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 6, Pardubice have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Pardubice?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Baník Ostrava at 76%, Pardubice at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Baník Ostrava and 76% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Baník Ostrava's games and 67% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Baník Ostrava's matches and 76% of Pardubice's.
Do Baník Ostrava and Pardubice tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 3-0 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.95 xG and Pardubice 1.42 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Baník Ostrava beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pardubice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 0.91 / defence 1.20 against Pardubice attack 0.84 / defence 1.50, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 48% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 26%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 64%, Pardubice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.