Baník Ostrava 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Baník Ostrava vs Karviná encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Baník Ostrava host Karviná at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Baník Ostrava have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Karviná stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 0D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Baník Ostrava have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Baník Ostrava, 0 for Karviná and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Karviná in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Baník Ostrava 68% and Karviná 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Baník Ostrava 64% | Karviná 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG and Karviná 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baník Ostrava attack 1.197 / defence 1.363 | Karviná attack 0.531 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.126. Data: 25 Baník Ostrava games / 25 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 55% | Draw 26% | Karviná 20%. Fair-value odds: Baník Ostrava 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Karviná 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Baník Ostrava 80% | Karviná 20%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baník Ostrava vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baník Ostrava 55% | Draw 26% | Karviná 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Baník Ostrava 1.55 / Karviná 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Baník Ostrava attack 1.197 / def 1.363 | Karviná attack 0.531 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Baník Ostrava xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Karviná xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Baník Ostrava vs Karviná kick off?
Baník Ostrava vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What was the final score in Baník Ostrava vs Karviná?
Baník Ostrava 1 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Baník Ostrava vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna.
What competition is Baník Ostrava vs Karviná part of?
Baník Ostrava vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Baník Ostrava vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Baník Ostrava a 55% chance of winning, Karviná a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baník Ostrava vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Baník Ostrava and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Baník Ostrava vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Karviná?
Record (1 meetings): Baník Ostrava 1W | Draws 0 | Karviná 0W.
What form are Baník Ostrava and Karviná in?
Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Karviná (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Baník Ostrava's attack rating (1.20) and Karviná's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Karviná's attack versus Baník Ostrava's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.92
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Baník Ostrava xG
Total xG
2.37
0.81
Karviná xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
4%
24.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Baník Ostrava vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Baník Ostrava and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Baník Ostrava and 0.81 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Baník Ostrava vs Karviná?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Baník Ostrava have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 13W 8D 4L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 1W 7D 17L from 25 games, 0.40 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 1.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Karviná.
Venue Form
On home soil, Baník Ostrava have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (6W 4D 2L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 1W 1D 10L from 12 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Baník Ostrava are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 0.84 scored and 1.72 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Baník Ostrava have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baník Ostrava
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Baník Ostrava and Karviná in coming into this match?
Baník Ostrava have gone 13W 8D 4L in their last 25 games (1.88 PPG), while Karviná have gone 1W 7D 17L in their last 25 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baník Ostrava at home or Karviná away?
Baník Ostrava's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baník Ostrava at home: 1.83 PPG; Karviná away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Baník Ostrava's record when hosting Karviná specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Baník Ostrava
3
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Baník Ostrava and Karviná?
From 8 meetings on record, Baník Ostrava have won 3, Karviná have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Baník Ostrava and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Karviná 0-0 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Baník Ostrava and Karviná?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Baník Ostrava 83%, Karviná 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Baník Ostrava) and 33% (Karviná).
On the defensive side: Karviná in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baník Ostrava home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Baník Ostrava play Karviná?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 83% of Baník Ostrava's recent matches and 25% of Karviná's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Baník Ostrava vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Baník Ostrava's recent games and 33% of Karviná's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baník Ostrava and Karviná tend to score early?
Baník Ostrava have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Karviná in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Baník Ostrava.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Baník Ostrava 1-3 at Městský stadion - Vítkovice Aréna, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baník Ostrava 1.55 xG and Karviná 0.81 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baník Ostrava attack 1.20 / defence 1.36 against Karviná attack 0.53 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baník Ostrava 55% | Draw 26% | Karviná 20%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Karviná win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baník Ostrava 64%, Karviná 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.40. Form was overturned, with Karviná winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.