Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Zbrojovka Brno make the trip to Town Stadium Karvina to face Artis in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Artis's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 1D 7L from 9 games (0.44 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 2.56 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.56 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Artis have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Artis's home record at Town Stadium Karvina: 0W 0D 5L from 5 Czech Liga appearances (0.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Zbrojovka Brno (all games): 4W 1D 2L across 7 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.86 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.29 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zbrojovka Brno's away record: 1W 1D 1L from 3 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Zbrojovka Brno arrive in superior form — a 1.42 PPG advantage (1.86 vs 0.44) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Artis — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Zbrojovka Brno — key trading statistics (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Artis 57% versus Zbrojovka Brno 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Artis 71% | Zbrojovka Brno 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Artis 0.98 xG and Zbrojovka Brno 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Artis attack 0.642 / defence 1.660 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.786 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.409 / away 1.288. Artis's attack strength of 0.642 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Artis games / 7 Zbrojovka Brno games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Artis 21% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 53%. Fair-value odds: Artis 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Zbrojovka Brno 1.89. Zbrojovka Brno hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zbrojovka Brno are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Artis 60% | Zbrojovka Brno 33%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Town Stadium Karvina • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Artis 21% | Draw 25% | Zbrojovka Brno 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Artis 0.98 / Zbrojovka Brno 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Artis attack 0.642 / def 1.660 | Zbrojovka Brno attack 0.786 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.409 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Artis xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Zbrojovka Brno xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno kick off?
Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 February 2027 at Town Stadium Karvina.
Where is Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno being played?
The match is being played at Town Stadium Karvina.
What competition is Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno part of?
Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our statistical model gives Artis a 21% chance of winning, Zbrojovka Brno a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Artis and Zbrojovka Brno will score (BTTS).
Will Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Artis and Zbrojovka Brno?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Artis and Zbrojovka Brno in?
Artis (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 2.56 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.29 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Artis's attack at 0.64x the league average against Zbrojovka Brno's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Zbrojovka Brno's attack (0.79x) against Artis's defence (1.66x) — and the away total comes out at 1.68.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
21%
4.67
25%
3.96
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Artis xG
Total xG
2.66
1.68
Zbrojovka Brno xG
4.67
21%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
19%
5.37
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
4%
25.10
20%
4.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Artis and Zbrojovka Brno expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Artis and 1.68 for Zbrojovka Brno, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Artis come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Artis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Zbrojovka Brno sit at 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zbrojovka Brno carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.29 PPG clear of Artis — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Artis's home form reads 0W 0D 3L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Zbrojovka Brno have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Zbrojovka Brno's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Artis are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game recently; Zbrojovka Brno are on 1.43 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Artis
Early Season
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Artis and Zbrojovka Brno in coming into this match?
Artis have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Zbrojovka Brno have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Artis at home or Zbrojovka Brno away?
Zbrojovka Brno's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Artis at home: 0.00 PPG; Zbrojovka Brno away: 1.33 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Artis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Artis) and 33% (Zbrojovka Brno) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Artis and 33% for Zbrojovka Brno. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zbrojovka Brno in 33%; Artis have failed to score in 67% of games; Zbrojovka Brno in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Artis home games / Zbrojovka Brno away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Artis play Zbrojovka Brno?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Artis's recent matches and 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Artis vs Zbrojovka Brno usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Artis's matches and 33% of Zbrojovka Brno's.
Do Artis and Zbrojovka Brno tend to score early?
Artis have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Zbrojovka Brno in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.