Wuhan Three Towns 5-1 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns at 74% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Wuhan Three Towns welcome Beijing Guoan to Wuhan Sports Center Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 12 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wuhan Three Towns — All Games: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 2.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Wuhan Three Towns, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wuhan Three Towns's home record at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium: 5W 0D 0L from 5 Super League appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beijing Guoan stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Super League matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Beijing Guoan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beijing Guoan away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Wuhan Three Towns carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.80 vs 1.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Beijing Guoan in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wuhan Three Towns 46% versus Beijing Guoan 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wuhan Three Towns 82% | Beijing Guoan 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wuhan Three Towns 2.94 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.829 / defence 0.943 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.058 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.126. Wuhan Three Towns carry an above-average attack strength of 1.829 — their λ of 2.94 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Wuhan Three Towns games / 25 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 74% | Draw 14% | Beijing Guoan 12%. Fair-value odds: Wuhan Three Towns 1.35 | Draw 7.14 | Beijing Guoan 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Wuhan Three Towns (74%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.06. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.06 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.94 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wuhan Three Towns as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 4.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Wuhan Three Towns 40% | Beijing Guoan 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Wuhan Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns 74% | Draw 14% | Beijing Guoan 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 64% | xG Wuhan Three Towns 2.94 / Beijing Guoan 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.829 / def 0.943 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.058 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Wuhan Three Towns (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.94
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Beijing Guoan xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 12:30 on Friday 12 August 2022 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Wuhan Three Towns 5 - 1 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Wuhan Three Towns a 74% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 12% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Wuhan Three Towns the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan in?
Wuhan Three Towns (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wuhan Three Towns's attack at 1.83x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 2.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Beijing Guoan's attack versus Wuhan Three Towns's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wuhan Three Towns Win
74%
1.35
14%
7.02
12%
8.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.94
Wuhan Three Towns xG
Total xG
4.06
1.12
Beijing Guoan xG
1.35
74%
Home win
7.02
14%
Draw
8.68
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
5%
18.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
1%
163.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.4%.
How many goals are Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 2.94 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 1.12 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 4.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wuhan Three Towns's recent record stands at 10W 1D 0L from 11 games, a 2.82 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wuhan Three Towns is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 3L across 11 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Beijing Guoan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Wuhan Three Towns by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beijing Guoan heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wuhan Three Towns have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 1W 2D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Beijing Guoan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wuhan Three Towns come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wuhan Three Towns are averaging 3.27 goals scored and 0.55 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 64%.
Defensively: Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wuhan Three Towns
Blended
Beijing Guoan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Wuhan Three Towns have gone 10W 1D 0L in their last 11 games (2.82 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 4W 4D 3L in their last 11 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wuhan Three Towns at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Wuhan Three Towns's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wuhan Three Towns at home: 3.00 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Wuhan Three Towns or Beijing Guoan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wuhan Three Towns have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Beijing Guoan in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 27 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Beijing Guoan have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2022, when Wuhan Three Towns won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wuhan Three Towns's record when hosting Beijing Guoan specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wuhan Three Towns
3
Draws
4
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Wuhan Three Towns have won 3, Beijing Guoan have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 27 June 2026, when Beijing Guoan 1-0 Wuhan Three Towns.
Who has won more matches between Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wuhan Three Towns are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wuhan Three Towns 40%, Beijing Guoan 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wuhan Three Towns and 80% for Beijing Guoan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wuhan Three Towns keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wuhan Three Towns home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wuhan Three Towns play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Wuhan Three Towns's games and 80% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wuhan Three Towns vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wuhan Three Towns's matches and 80% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Wuhan Three Towns and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Wuhan Three Towns have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wuhan Three Towns run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Beijing Guoan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wuhan Three Towns beat Beijing Guoan 5-1 at Wuhan Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wuhan Three Towns 2.94 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.12 xG, a combined 4.06. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Wuhan Three Towns beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wuhan Three Towns attack 1.83 / defence 0.94 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.06 / defence 1.15, drawn from 11/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wuhan Three Towns 74% | Draw 14% | Beijing Guoan 12%, with Wuhan Three Towns to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wuhan Three Towns 82%, Beijing Guoan 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wuhan Three Towns's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Wuhan Three Towns arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 1.45. Form held, and they took the win. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.