Tianjin Teda 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Shanghai Shenhua encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Tianjin Teda and Shanghai Shenhua meet at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 22 July 2021 at 09:30 UTC.

Current Form

Tianjin Teda's overall Super League record this term: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games (0.83 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Tianjin Teda have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Tianjin Teda's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Kunshan Sports Center Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Shanghai Shenhua (all games): 3W 2D 1L across 6 Super League outings this term — 1.83 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.17. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Shanghai Shenhua have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Shanghai Shenhua's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Shanghai Shenhua arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.83 vs 0.83) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Shanghai Shenhua in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Trading

Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.

Shanghai Shenhua half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 33% versus Shanghai Shenhua 83%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 0.99 xG and Shanghai Shenhua 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.979 / defence 1.440 | Shanghai Shenhua attack 0.886 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 0.856 / away 1.201. Data: 6 Tianjin Teda games / 6 Shanghai Shenhua games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 21% | Draw 33% | Shanghai Shenhua 46%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 4.76 | Draw 3.03 | Shanghai Shenhua 2.17. Shanghai Shenhua hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Shanghai Shenhua as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shanghai Shenhua if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 67% | Shanghai Shenhua 67% BTTS from recent games.

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