Tianjin Teda 2-2 Meizhou Kejia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympic Sports Center Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Meizhou Kejia in Super League (matchday 1). Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Meizhou Kejia (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Tianjin Teda's favour (1.80 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Meizhou Kejia and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Aug 2024, ended Tianjin Teda 2–3 Meizhou Kejia — a Meizhou Kejia win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Tianjin Teda — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Meizhou Kejia — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tianjin Teda 62% and Meizhou Kejia 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 50% | Meizhou Kejia 60%). Note also that Meizhou Kejia surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Tianjin Teda recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.82 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.980 / defence 0.957 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.945 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.725 / away 1.236. Data: built from Tianjin Teda's last 30 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 23%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.86 | Draw 4.36 | Meizhou Kejia 4.31. Tianjin Teda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Tianjin Teda's last 10 home games and Meizhou Kejia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Tianjin Teda 50% (last 10 home games) | Meizhou Kejia 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Tianjin Teda 30 games, Meizhou Kejia 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia | Competition: Super League, matchday 1 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 07:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Tianjin Teda 1.82 / Meizhou Kejia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.980 / def 0.957 | Meizhou Kejia attack 0.945 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.725 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia FAQs
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia kicked off at 07:30 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda 2 - 2 Meizhou Kejia.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia is a Super League fixture (matchday 1) (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 54% chance of winning, Meizhou Kejia a 23% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.98x the league average against Meizhou Kejia's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Meizhou Kejia's attack (0.94x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Tianjin Teda's last 30 games and Meizhou Kejia's last 30, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
54%
1.86
23%
4.36
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.94
1.12
Meizhou Kejia xG
1.86
54%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
4%
26.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.12 for Meizhou Kejia, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 23W 21D 16L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Meizhou Kejia's form line: 15W 16D 29L from 60 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Tianjin Teda are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Meizhou Kejia.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 15D 3L).
On the road, Meizhou Kejia have gone 4W 8D 18L from their last 30 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Meizhou Kejia are on 1.18 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Meizhou Kejia in 62%.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
Tianjin Teda (Home) vs Meizhou Kejia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Meizhou Kejia
Current Season
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia Form FAQs
What form are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 23W 21D 16L in their last 60 games (1.50 PPG), while Meizhou Kejia have gone 15W 16D 29L in their last 60 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Meizhou Kejia away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.70 PPG; Meizhou Kejia away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia, the earliest from June 2022. All of them came in Super League. The most recent in our data was on 29 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Meizhou Kejia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
4
Draws
1
Meizhou Kejia
Recent Meetings
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Meizhou Kejia have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 June 2025: Meizhou Kejia 1-2 Tianjin Teda.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Meizhou Kejia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 57%, Meizhou Kejia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Tianjin Teda) and 63% (Meizhou Kejia).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Meizhou Kejia in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Meizhou Kejia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Tianjin Teda vs Meizhou Kejia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Tianjin Teda's games and 60% of Meizhou Kejia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 63% of Meizhou Kejia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 70% of Meizhou Kejia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda and Meizhou Kejia finished level at 2-2 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.82 xG and Meizhou Kejia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Meizhou Kejia outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.98 / defence 0.96 against Meizhou Kejia attack 0.94 / defence 1.08, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 54% | Draw 23% | Meizhou Kejia 23%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 50%, Meizhou Kejia 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Meizhou Kejia's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Meizhou Kejia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.