Tianjin Teda 1-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tianjin Teda host Henan Jianye at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 December 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Tianjin Teda — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda's home record at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Henan Jianye stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Super League this season, Henan Jianye have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tianjin Teda 1.90 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Henan Jianye 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Tianjin Teda in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Henan Jianye in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 51% versus Henan Jianye 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 45% | Henan Jianye 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Henan Jianye 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.013 / defence 0.696 | Henan Jianye attack 1.093 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.412. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.696 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 Tianjin Teda games / 43 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 32%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Henan Jianye 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 40% | Henan Jianye 60%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.17 / Henan Jianye 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.013 / def 0.696 | Henan Jianye attack 1.093 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Henan Jianye xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 37% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Henan Jianye 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Tianjin Teda's attack rating (1.01) and Henan Jianye's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.24
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.25
1.07
Henan Jianye xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.07 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 18W 12D 21L from 51 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five.
Henan Jianye, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 15L across 51 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-D-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tianjin Teda on 1.29 PPG, Henan Jianye on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 10W 5D 10L from 25 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Henan Jianye's away record stands at 7W 9D 9L across 25 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.35 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Henan Jianye in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 18W 12D 21L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Henan Jianye away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.40 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Henan Jianye been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Henan Jianye in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 19 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Tianjin Teda's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tianjin Teda
2
Draws
2
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
From 10 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 6, Henan Jianye have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-2 Henan Jianye.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 56%, Henan Jianye 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Tianjin Teda) and 32% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Henan Jianye in 40%; Henan Jianye in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Henan Jianye?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 36% of Henan Jianye's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 32% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Tianjin Teda and Henan Jianye drew 1-1 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.17 xG and Henan Jianye 1.07 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.01 / defence 0.70 against Henan Jianye attack 1.09 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 37% | Draw 31% | Henan Jianye 32%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 45%, Henan Jianye 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.29 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.