Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Zhixing – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dalian Zhixing make the trip to Olympic Sports Center Stadium to face Tianjin Teda in Super League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Tianjin Teda at Olympic Sports Center Stadium this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympic Sports Center Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at Olympic Sports Center Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Zhixing (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Dalian Zhixing away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Tianjin Teda's favour (1.40 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Tianjin Teda 1W, Dalian Zhixing 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Dalian Zhixing half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Dalian Zhixing 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 53% | Dalian Zhixing 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.818 / defence 1.189 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.878 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.349. Data: 44 Tianjin Teda games / 44 Dalian Zhixing games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 34%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Dalian Zhixing 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tianjin Teda at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Tianjin Teda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Tianjin Teda 30% | Dalian Zhixing 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympic Sports Center Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 May 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.57 / Dalian Zhixing 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.818 / def 1.189 | Dalian Zhixing attack 0.878 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Dalian Zhixing xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 31 May 2026 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Dalian Zhixing.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing being played?
The match is being played at Olympic Sports Center Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 41% chance of winning, Dalian Zhixing a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing?
Record (2 meetings): Tianjin Teda 1W | Draws 1 | Dalian Zhixing 0W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Dalian Zhixing (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.82x the league average against Dalian Zhixing's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Zhixing's attack (0.88x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
41%
2.41
24%
4.12
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.98
1.41
Dalian Zhixing xG
2.41
41%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
10%
9.86
7%
14.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 1.41 for Dalian Zhixing, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Tianjin Teda's recent record stands at 12W 8D 10L from 30 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Dalian Zhixing, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 12L across 30 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-D-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.20 for Dalian Zhixing. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Tianjin Teda have managed 8W 4D 3L from 15 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Tianjin Teda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dalian Zhixing's away record stands at 1W 7D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dalian Zhixing's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Dalian Zhixing are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Current Season
Dalian Zhixing
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 12W 8D 10L in their last 30 games (1.47 PPG), while Dalian Zhixing have gone 9W 9D 12L in their last 30 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Dalian Zhixing away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.87 PPG; Dalian Zhixing away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 31 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Tianjin Teda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Zhixing — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Tianjin Teda
1
Draws
0
Dalian Zhixing
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing?
From 3 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 2, Dalian Zhixing have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2026, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing?
Tianjin Teda have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Dalian Zhixing are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 40%, Dalian Zhixing 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Tianjin Teda) and 47% (Dalian Zhixing).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Dalian Zhixing in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Dalian Zhixing away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Dalian Zhixing?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 60% of Dalian Zhixing's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Zhixing usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 47% of Dalian Zhixing's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Dalian Zhixing tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dalian Zhixing in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Dalian Zhixing 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Dalian Zhixing 1-0 at Olympic Sports Center Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.57 xG and Dalian Zhixing 1.41 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Zhixing landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against Dalian Zhixing attack 0.88 / defence 1.17, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 41% | Draw 24% | Dalian Zhixing 34%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 53%, Dalian Zhixing 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Dalian Zhixing's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.47 PPG, Dalian Zhixing 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Zhixing (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.