Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Aerbin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tianjin Teda at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TEDA Football Stadium plays host to Tianjin Teda versus Dalian Aerbin in Super League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 10:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Tianjin Teda have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TEDA Football Stadium, Tianjin Teda have gone 3W 7D 0L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Tianjin Teda are significantly better at TEDA Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Dalian Aerbin (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dalian Aerbin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Tianjin Teda, 0.90 for Dalian Aerbin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Tianjin Teda have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Dalian Aerbin in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 3 for Dalian Aerbin and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Tianjin Teda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Tianjin Teda half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dalian Aerbin half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Dalian Aerbin 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 42% | Dalian Aerbin 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.65 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 0.934 / defence 0.933 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.753 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 1.215. Data: 57 Tianjin Teda games / 58 Dalian Aerbin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 25% | Dalian Aerbin 19%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Dalian Aerbin 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tianjin Teda are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Tianjin Teda 60% | Dalian Aerbin 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: TEDA Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 10:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 25% | Dalian Aerbin 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.65 / Dalian Aerbin 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 0.934 / def 0.933 | Dalian Aerbin attack 0.753 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.562 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Dalian Aerbin xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin kicked off at 10:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at TEDA Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Dalian Aerbin.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin being played?
The match is being played at TEDA Football Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 56% chance of winning, Dalian Aerbin a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin?
Record (5 meetings): Tianjin Teda 2W | Draws 0 | Dalian Aerbin 3W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Dalian Aerbin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 0.93x the league average against Dalian Aerbin's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dalian Aerbin's attack (0.75x) against Tianjin Teda's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 57/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.00
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.50
0.85
Dalian Aerbin xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
4%
27.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.85 for Dalian Aerbin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Tianjin Teda have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 21W 20D 16L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dalian Aerbin's form line: 16W 17D 24L from 57 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Dalian Aerbin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Tianjin Teda against 1.14 for Dalian Aerbin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Tianjin Teda have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (11W 12D 5L).
On the road, Dalian Aerbin have gone 6W 6D 16L from 28 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Dalian Aerbin are on 1.21 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Dalian Aerbin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 21W 20D 16L in their last 57 games (1.46 PPG), while Dalian Aerbin have gone 16W 17D 24L in their last 57 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Dalian Aerbin away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.61 PPG; Dalian Aerbin away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Tianjin Teda or Dalian Aerbin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tianjin Teda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dalian Aerbin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Tianjin Teda go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dalian Aerbin won 0-3 on 27 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Tianjin Teda have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Dalian Aerbin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
3
Dalian Aerbin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin?
From 6 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 3, Dalian Aerbin have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2023, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Dalian Aerbin.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Tianjin Teda see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Dalian Aerbin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 54%, Dalian Aerbin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Tianjin Teda) and 61% (Dalian Aerbin).
On the defensive side: Tianjin Teda keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Dalian Aerbin in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Dalian Aerbin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Dalian Aerbin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 50% of Dalian Aerbin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Dalian Aerbin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 61% of Dalian Aerbin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Dalian Aerbin tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Dalian Aerbin in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Dalian Aerbin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Dalian Aerbin 1-0 at TEDA Football Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.65 xG and Dalian Aerbin 0.85 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dalian Aerbin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Dalian Aerbin attack 0.75 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 56% | Draw 25% | Dalian Aerbin 19%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 42%, Dalian Aerbin 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dalian Aerbin's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tianjin Teda 1.46 PPG, Dalian Aerbin 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tianjin Teda win broke the near-deadlock. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dalian Aerbin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.